20180313-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_9页_261kb

EM STRATEGY | DAILY Summary

Document Overview

This document is a daily emerging markets strategy report produced by BNP Paribas on 13 March 2018, summarizing key developments and market outlooks across Emerging Markets (EM), CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe), Latin America (Latam), and Asia. It is authored by various strategists and analysts and includes important legal disclosures regarding the nature and limitations of the research.

Core Content and Key Points

Global Market Outlook

• US CPI Data: February CPI data is a key risk factor today. The report highlights the possibility of an upside surprise in inflation due to the fading low base effect and relatively high month-over-month (m/m) prints.
• Inflation Forecast: US inflation is expected to continue rising, with a peak of above 2.7% in July.
• Market Impact: Flows to risky assets are expected to remain choppy until then.
• Risk Activity: Overnight risk activity is subdued, with mixed performance in Asian FX, credit, and equity markets.

CEEMEA Analysis

• Russia-UK Relations: Tensions are ongoing due to alleged Russian involvement in a nerve-agent attack on British soil. UK PM Theresa May and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have confirmed Russia's involvement.
• Sanctions Extension: The EU has extended sanctions against Russia related to its operations in Crimea for an additional six months (until 15 September).
• South Africa: The ANC is seeking support from the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) party to strengthen its base before the Parliamentary elections. However, the likelihood of this happening is low.
• Manufacturing Data: South Africa's manufacturing production growth for January is expected to rise to 2.8% y/y, aligning with consensus expectations.

Latin America (Latam) Analysis

• Argentina: The central bank (BCRA) is expected to keep the seven-day repo rate unchanged, due to above-target inflation expectations and pressured CPI components.
• Currency Pressure: Structural issues are putting pressure on the peso, forcing the BCRA to intervene in the FX market.
• Colombia: The centre-right congressional victory on Sunday reduces political risk ahead of the presidential election in May. Iván Duque is the likely center-right candidate, and a left-wing president may lack Congress support.

Asia Analysis

• India Inflation: February inflation data came in at 4.4%, below consensus expectations, but the report retains its view on policy tightening in H2 2018 due to rising inflationary pressures.

Key Contacts

Legal Notice and Disclaimer

• The document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest due to its interaction with sales and trading.
• It is a marketing communication and not investment research under MiFID II.
• The information may be subject to change and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
• No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from reliance on this document.
• Indicative prices are provided for informational purposes and do not represent actual transaction terms.
• The document does not constitute a prospectus and may include simulated performance data based on back-testing.
• ETFs and convertible securities discussed may involve significant risks, including currency, geopolitical, credit, and interest rate risks.
• Options are complex instruments and may be suitable only for sophisticated investors.

Additional Information

• The document is available on the BNP Paribas Global Markets Website and Bloomberg platforms.
• It is intended for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties under MiFID II.
• Confidentiality: The document is provided on a strictly confidential basis and may not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.
• US Disclosures: The report may be distributed only to qualified institutional buyers or non-US persons, and may involve unregistered securities.
• Regulatory Compliance: The report is subject to various regulatory frameworks in the UK, France, Germany, and Belgium.

Conclusion

This report provides a comprehensive overview of key economic and political developments in Emerging Markets, with a focus on inflation trends, monetary policy decisions, and political dynamics in major regions. It includes strategic insights, market analysis, and legal disclaimers to ensure clarity on the nature and limitations of the research.