【世界银行】泰国经济监测，2025年2月：释放增长来源：创新、中小企业和初创企业-2025.2_73页_3mb

Thailand Economic Monitor Summary: February 2025

Overview

The Thailand Economic Monitor analyzes recent economic developments, outlook, and innovative solutions to drive growth, with a focus on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and startups. The economy grew at 2.6% in 2024, but remains below potential and lags peers due to subdued private consumption and high household debt. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.9% in 2025, supported by fiscal stimulus, though risks include external uncertainties. Innovation is crucial for long-term competitiveness and sustainability.

Recent Economic Developments

• Growth: Actual GDP growth in 2024 was 2.6%, exceeding initial expectations driven by public investment and electronics exports, but private consumption slowed due to credit tightening.
• Globa Context: Global growth remains subdued, with divergence among regions. Trade tensions and supply chain shifts pose risks, though Thailand benefits from its position in global value chains.
• Inflation and Stability: Inflation edged up to 0.8% in 2024, the lowest in ASEAN, supported by price controls. Financial stability is maintained, but household debt at 90.7% of GDP is a key vulnerability.
• Fiscal and Monetary Policy: The fiscal stance became less expansionary due to delayed budget execution, with public debt rising to 63.3% of GDP. Monetary policy remains accommodative, but debt relief measures could widen credit tightening.
• Poverty and Inequality: Poverty declined to 8.2% in 2024, partly due to economic recovery and cash transfers, but climate shocks and aging demographics remain challenges.

Economic Outlook

• Projection: Growth is expected to accelerate to 2.9% in 2025 and slow to 2.2% in 2026, with the economy reaching its potential by 2028.
• Risks: Upside risks include fiscal stimulus and trade diversion, while downside risks stem from external factors like weaker demand from the US and China, and domestic issues like household debt.
• Monetary and Fiscal Actions: Fiscal policy will expand in 2025 to boost consumption, but reforms are needed to reduce regressive subsidies and enhance revenue through taxes like VAT rebates. Monetary policy balances easing with financial stability.

Innovation and SMEs

• Productivity Focus: Innovation is essential for escaping the middle-income trap, with drivers including technology adoption, entry of new firms, and dynamic reallocation.
• Current Performance: Thai SMEs have low innovation rates, with only 2.9% conducting R&D. Barriers include limited access to finance, restrictive regulations, and skill shortages.
• Key Recommendations: Support SME modernization through digital and climate technologies; leverage Global Value Chains (GVCs) by easing FDI restrictions; promote green innovation; and foster startups through better financing and incubation programs.

Conclusion and Key Recommendations

• Short-Term Actions: Balance fiscal stimulus with sustainability by reducing energy subsidies and broadening tax bases.
• Long-Term Strategies: Enhance innovation and productivity through education reform, competition policies, and coordinated public-private efforts. Strengthen high-tech skills and international talent attraction to address structural constraints.

The report underscores the need for coordinated policies to transform Thailand into a middle-income country, emphasizing innovation to drive inclusive and resilient growth.