2025-03-09-世界银行-泰国经济监测_2025年2月_释放增长来源_创新_中小企业和初创企业（英）_72页_3mb

Thailand Economic Monitor Summary

Overview

• The report analyzes Thailand's recent economic developments and outlook, with a focus on challenges and opportunities in innovation.
• Central to this is empowering Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and startups to drive productivity growth amid a struggling recovery and medium-term outlook.

Recent Economic Developments

• Growth in 2024 reached 2.6%, surpassed expectations due to fiscal stimulus, but remained below potential compared to regional peers.
• Key drivers included public investment, electronics exports, and tourism rebound; constraints were high household debt, tightening credit, and subdued private consumption.
• Inflation edged up to 1.0%, remaining low amid energy and food price increases, supported by price controls and government subsidies.
• Financial stability is maintained, but bank lending slowed, and households face debt servicing challenges.

Outlook

• Growth projected to accelerate to 2.9% in 2025, driven by stronger domestic demand and fiscal stimulus, before slowing to 2.7% in 2026.
• Upside risks include global economic slowdown, lower shipping costs, and trade tensions; downside risks involve household deleveraging and tight lending standards.
• Public debt is expected to rise, with the government deficit widening due to planned stimulus measures, raising questions on fiscal sustainability.

Innovation and SME Productivity

• Thailand faces a low rate of product and process innovation among firms; barriers include limited access to finance for SMEs, regulatory hurdles, skill gaps, and weak entrepreneurial activity.
• Opportunities lie in digitalization, climate technologies, and foreign direct investment (FDI), though inflows lag regional peers.
• Recommendations call for simplifying R&D support, enhancing skills in high-tech areas, reducing barriers to entry, promoting green innovation, and fostering SME innovation ecosystems.

Key Recommendations

• Boost fiscal space by reforming energy subsidies and broadening tax bases.
• Strengthen innovation funding, particularly for early-stage ventures and SMEs, through venture capital and simpler tax incentives.
• Align regulatory standards with international best practices to enhance competition and FDI inflows.
• Invest in human capital to address skill shortages and better integrate with global value chains.

Overall, the economy needs a concerted effort to enhance productivity via innovation, with balanced short-term stimulus and long-term structural reforms to navigate external uncertainties and climate challenges.