亚开行-越南2023年金融市场和2024年展望_金融科技监管的方向（英）_98页_2mb

Introduction and Overview: Viet Nam's economy grew at 5.05% in 2023, facing high inflation and NPLs. The 2024 outlook projects 6.0%-6.5% GDP growth, driven by recovery and supportive policies, but with risks like global slowdown and real estate challenges. Financial markets showed recovery in stocks and bonds, but face interconnected risks between real estate and finance.

Macroeconomic Contexts: Global inflation remained high, leading central banks to keep rates elevated. Viet Nam implemented easing policies, resulting in lower interest rates. The dong depreciated minimally, and credit growth slowed, supported by accommodative monetary policy. Challenges include subdued economic growth and high NPLs.

Financial Market Outlook 2024: Banking credit growth may reach 14% in 2024. The stock market could attract more capital, aided by ETF inflows. The corporate bond market needs reforms for sustainable growth. Profitability for institutions is expected to improve moderately but faces risks from NPLs and regulatory changes. Digital transformation and AI applications are accelerating.

Fintech Regulation: Viet Nam primarily uses a wait-and-see approach but is shifting towards test-and-learn. Key areas include mobile payments, digital banking, and blockchain. SBV is establishing a sandbox mechanism and collaborating with international partners, but regulatory gaps remain in many fintech segments.

Policy Recommendations: Strengthen capital markets, improve institutional frameworks, and foster fintech innovation. Enhance anti-goldization policies and revise legal frameworks. Promote ESG and sustainable finance, ensuring macroeconomic stability and risk management.