2024-05-26-新经济思想研究所--特朗普与拜登_第二次大选的宏观经济学（英）_105页_1mb

Economic Context of the 2024 US Presidential Election

Part I: Real Wages and Labor Market

Most American workers experienced declining real wages under President Biden. While the bottom 10% saw modest wage growth during 2020-2023, this was largely due to COVID-related compositional effects rather than sustained positive trends. Real weekly earnings for most workers dropped during the Biden administration compared to pre-pandemic levels. The distributional shifts in earnings did not correspond to genuine wage compression; pre-pandemic trends largely explain apparent changes. Workers at the bottom improved relatively, but their gains did not translate to better living standards as inflation eroded purchasing power across income groups.

Part II: Wealth Effects and Inflation

The 2024 election context is significantly shaped by unprecedented increases in wealth concentration among the richest Americans. Wealth gains, particularly from housing and stock markets, far exceeded historical norms. These wealth gains enabled affluent households to maintain high consumption despite falling real incomes, directly driving inflation. The wealth effect on consumption spending by the top 10% accounts for all of the increase in aggregate consumption above trend during 2021-2023. This spending surge, concentrated among the wealthy, has created "sticky price" inflation in services that monetary policy struggles to address.

Part III: Conclusions for the Election

The close 2024 presidential election occurs amid a misleading narrative promoted by economic experts that diverges significantly from voters' experiences. The established macroeconomic consensus arguing for a "soft landing" conflicts with widespread reports of declining real wages and deteriorating economic conditions for most Americans. The paper concludes that voters are not suffering from "amnesia" or being misled by "populist messaging," but rather responding to tangible economic hardship, particularly the erosion of purchasing power and stagnant wages. The election's narrow margins reflect this disconnect between expert analysis and lived economic reality.