国际可持续发展研究所-利用贸易支持发展中国家的气候适应（英）-2021.10-47页_827kb

Summary: Leveraging Trade to Support Climate Adaptation in Developing Countries

Core Content

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) explores how international trade can be leveraged to support climate adaptation in developing countries. It emphasizes that the current global trade system, designed for a stable climate, is now increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which include rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting supply and demand patterns. The report outlines three key pathways through which trade can support adaptation and highlights the role of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) in this process.

Main Viewpoints

• Climate change is a systemic threat that affects trade through both direct and indirect impacts, such as changes in agricultural yields, disruptions to trade infrastructure, and impacts on tourism and financial services.
• Adaptation is not just a technical process, but involves fundamental shifts in decision-making to incorporate climate risk assessments, manage uncertainty, and build resilience.
• Trade can serve as a vehicle for adaptation by enabling access to goods and services, facilitating trade-related financing, and promoting international collaboration.
• NAPs are essential tools for integrating climate adaptation into national and regional development strategies and are increasingly being used to establish strategic linkages with international trade processes.

Key Information

1.0 Introduction

• The global trade system was built under a stable climate, but rising temperatures and extreme weather events are now disrupting trade.
• The report is written by Julie Dekens, Anne Hammill, David Hoffmann, and Christophe Bellman.
• The Pacific region is highlighted as a case study due to its high vulnerability to climate change and the IISD's long-standing work with the NAP Global Network since 2017.
• The goal of the report is to support trade negotiators in understanding how to use trade mechanisms to support climate adaptation and to explore the role of NAPs in this context.

2.0 Background: The Urgent Need to Adapt

• Global temperatures have increased by over 1°C since 1880, with two-thirds of the warming occurring since 1975.
• Climate change impacts vary by region, from more intense rainfall in some areas to longer wildfire seasons in others.
• LMICs (low-to-middle income countries) are disproportionately affected by climate change due to their reliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and tourism.
• The World Bank estimates that 132 million people may be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change.
• The Paris Agreement (2015) recognizes adaptation as a key component of climate action, alongside mitigation.

2.1 What Is Adaptation?

• Adaptation involves preparing for and protecting against the negative impacts of climate change while also capitalizing on new opportunities.
• It is a dynamic, iterative process that requires continuous assessment of climate risks, management of uncertainty, and embedding climate considerations into planning and decision-making.
• Adaptation is context-specific and often tied to local geography, socio-economic conditions, and development priorities.

2.2 Policy Frameworks for Adaptation

• The UNFCCC provides a platform for countries to communicate climate impacts, identify adaptation priorities, and share experiences.
• The NAP process, established under the Cancun Adaptation Framework in 2010, is a country-driven, continuous process aimed at reducing vulnerability and integrating adaptation into policy and planning.
• As of November 2020, 125 developing countries were reported to be formulating and implementing NAPs, showing a growing global commitment to adaptation planning.

3.0 Understanding the Trade and Climate Adaptation Nexus

• Agri-food commodities: Climate change is already affecting food production and trade, especially in emerging and developing countries. It is projected to reduce global agricultural yields by up to 30% by 2050.
• Non-agricultural commodities: Climate change may damage production facilities and disrupt supply chains, particularly in energy, forest products, and metals.
• Trade infrastructure: Climate change threatens the reliability and functionality of trade infrastructure, including transport, logistics, and ICT systems.
• Tourism services: Climate change can damage tourism facilities and reputations, leading to reduced tourist arrivals and cascading economic impacts.
• Financial services: Climate change may increase the demand for financial products such as insurance and credit, but also increase risks for financial institutions.
• Human mobility: Climate change can both constrain and accelerate human mobility, affecting trade flows and labor markets.

4.0 Pathways for Trade to Support Adaptation

• Pathway 1: Domestic trade policy measures that improve access to adaptation goods and services.
• Pathway 2: Access to trade-related financing mechanisms that support climate adaptation.
• Pathway 3: International collaborative frameworks on trade that promote climate adaptation.

5.0 The Role of NAPs in Leveraging Trade

• NAPs help countries identify and prioritize adaptation measures that align with trade needs.
• The publication of NAP documents can serve as a strategic tool to link adaptation efforts with international trade processes.
• NAPs support the integration of climate adaptation into broader development and policy frameworks.

6.0 Conclusions and Next Steps

• Trade can play a critical role in supporting climate adaptation in developing countries.
• Trade negotiators must understand the specific climate vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities of different regions.
• The NAP process is a valuable mechanism for integrating adaptation into national and international trade strategies.
• Further work is needed to strengthen the link between trade policies and climate adaptation efforts.

References and Acronyms

• The report includes a list of key acronyms and references, such as the UNFCCC, NDCs, and NAPs, which are essential for understanding the policy context.
• It draws on literature reviews, expert consultations, and case studies from the Pacific region (Fiji, Kiribati, Tonga) to illustrate the practical applications of NAPs in trade adaptation.