国际可持续发展研究所-气候变化政策对发展中国家出口市场的影响（英）-2021.7-42页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Developing Country Export Markets"

Core Content

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) examines how climate change policies, particularly net-zero commitments and circular economy initiatives, are likely to affect developing country export markets. It highlights the potential trade impacts of these policies on fossil fuel and resource exports, emphasizing the need for developing countries to adapt to the changing global demand landscape.

Main Sectors and Policy Focus

Climate change policies, including net-zero commitments and circular economy plans, are commonly targeted at the following six sectors:

Energy supply
Residential/buildings
Industry
Transport
Waste
Agriculture & forestry

These policies often involve a combination of regulatory measures, market incentives, and technical interventions aimed at reducing emissions and promoting sustainability.

Key Policy Measures

Net-zero Policies:

Emission trading schemes and carbon taxes
Environmental reporting and certification regulations
Energy-efficiency action plans
Investment and production support for renewables/low-carbon energy
Phasing out coal-fired power
Reduction of fossil fuel subsidies

Circular Economy Policies:

Reuse and recycling targets and fiscal policies
Investments into collection systems and digitalization
Public procurement of recycled materials
Extended producer responsibility
Waste management regulations and labelling requirements
Incentives for reducing waste and using secondary/recycled materials

Key Trends and Impacts

Fossil Fuel Consumption Reduction

Trends: Net-zero and circular economy policies are driving a reduction in fossil fuel use, especially in developed economies.
Impacts:
- Oil: Demand is expected to peak in the coming decade, with sub-Saharan Africa heavily reliant on oil exports. Countries like Nigeria and Angola are major exporters, but their ability to compete in a tightening market is limited due to financial constraints.
- Natural Gas: Demand growth is concentrated in South and East Asia. Sub-Saharan African countries may only see limited growth in LNG exports, as the market is highly competitive and prices are low.
- Coal: Demand is expected to decline in China and rise only in India and Southeast Asia. Sub-Saharan African coal exports are mainly directed to India and Pakistan, which have not yet committed to coal phase-outs, though South Korea is also a key market with potential future restrictions.

Increased Demand for Metals and Minerals

Trends: The energy transition will significantly increase the demand for various metals and minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earth metals.
Impacts:
- These metals are essential for renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and grid storage.
- The shift to low-carbon technologies will create new export opportunities for developing countries that are rich in these resources.
- Circular economy initiatives may reduce the demand for virgin materials, increasing the importance of recycling and secondary material use.

Trade Impacts on Developing Countries

Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource exports account for 83% of total exports, with oil, gold, diamonds, natural gas, and coal as the top five.
LDCs (Least Developed Countries): Oil trade is critical for export revenue, with countries like South Sudan, Chad, Sudan, and Yemen heavily dependent on oil exports.
Low-income Economies: Coal exports are more significant in these economies, with a 25% share of total fossil fuel exports, compared to 7% in sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusion

Climate change policies, particularly net-zero commitments and circular economy initiatives, are reshaping global trade patterns and affecting developing country export markets. The transition to a low-carbon economy will reduce demand for fossil fuels, especially oil and coal, but increase the demand for metals and minerals used in renewable energy and electrification. Developing countries must adapt quickly to these changes to seize new opportunities and mitigate the risks of declining export markets.

Key Figures

Figure 1: Main export flows from key sub-Saharan African countries by commodity and export destination.
Figure 2: Total primary energy demand by fuel and scenario.
Figure 3: Minerals used in selected power generation technologies.
Figure 4: Minerals used in selected transport technologies.
Figure 5: Relative change in demand for minerals from energy technologies (without storage) through 2050 under different scenarios.
Figure 6: Share of fuel in exports of LDCs and sub-Saharan African countries (avg. 2016-2019).
Figure 7: Share of minerals and metals in exports of LDCs and sub-Saharan African countries (avg. 2016-2019).
Figure 8: Share of agricultural products in exports of LDCs and sub-Saharan African countries (avg. 2016-2019).
Figure 9: Exports of sub-Saharan African countries by category and destination (avg. 2016-2019).
Figure 10: Evolution of sub-Saharan African countries exports by destination (2002-2019).