2017年Q4亚太区经济展望（英文）_36页-1mb

Asia Pacific Economic Outlook - 4th Quarter 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Asia Pacific Economic Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2017 highlights the economic performance and outlook of Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The report emphasizes the role of exports, domestic demand, and policy measures in driving growth, while also identifying risks and challenges that could impact future economic trajectories.

Malaysia

Key Points

• Economic Growth: Malaysia experienced the fastest growth in two years for two consecutive quarters, with Q2 GDP growth at 5.8%.
• Drivers: Strong private spending, exports, and broad-based sectoral expansion were key contributors to growth.
• Private Consumption and Investment: Private consumption grew by 7.1% and private investment by 7.4% annually in Q2.
• Government Policies: Government cash handouts and subsidies helped cushion the impact of weaker wages on personal income.
• Export Performance: Exports grew 9.6% in Q2, supported by improved global conditions and strong demand for electronics.
• Inflation: Headline inflation declined steadily, while core inflation remained stable. The decline is attributed to lower fuel prices and the diminishing effects of previous subsidies.
• Fiscal and External Balances: The current account surplus improved to 3.4% of GDP, and the credit rating was upgraded.
• Outlook: The central bank revised growth forecast to above 4.8% for the year. However, risks include political uncertainty and continued reliance on oil exports.

Risks

• Political uncertainty ahead of elections.
• Economic dependence on oil exports, which may remain weak due to low global oil prices.
• Possible slowdown in private investment and consumer demand due to low wage growth and increasing unemployment.

The Philippines

Key Points

• Growth Momentum: The economy maintained strong growth, with Q2 GDP growth at 6.5%, slightly up from Q1.
• Exports and Remittances: Exports and remittances from overseas Filipino workers were significant contributors, with exports growing 19.7% in Q2 and remittances up 5.7% in June.
• Inflation: Inflation rose to 2.8% in July, with the central bank (BSP) maintaining its policy rate and focusing on inflation control.
• Monetary Policy: BSP is expected to tighten policy if inflation pressures increase, possibly with a 25-basis-point rate hike later in the year.
• Government Spending: Public construction growth was 12.0% in Q2, reflecting continued infrastructure investment.
• Outlook: The central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2017 and 2018 to 3.2%. Despite inflation concerns, consumer sentiment remains positive.

Risks

• Potential trade war between China and the US could impact export performance.
• Fiscal consolidation is necessary to sustain long-term growth, but may slow short-term momentum.
• Government spending on education and infrastructure could increase the budget deficit.

Taiwan

Key Points

• Economic Growth: Q2 GDP growth was 2.1%, with exports growing 5.0% and consumer spending 2.0%.
• Export Performance: Exports grew 12.5% in July, driven by demand from the US and EU, though growth to China slowed.
• Demographics: The working-age population is expected to decline by 0.5% annually until 2020, with potential implications for economic growth.
• Labor Market: The unemployment rate is 3.8%, and consumer price inflation is 0.8%, allowing for a stable monetary policy.
• Foreign Reserves: The country has a large external surplus and USD 444 billion in foreign currency reserves, providing a buffer against global economic shocks.
• Fiscal Policy: Modest government debt allows for potential fiscal stimulus if needed.

Risks

• A slowdown in the Chinese economy could negatively impact Taiwan's export performance.
• Trade tensions between the US and China may disrupt export markets.
• Demographic decline could slow economic growth unless productivity gains are accelerated.

Vietnam

Key Points

• Growth Performance: Vietnam's real GDP growth accelerated to 6.2% in Q2, up from 5.1% in Q1.
• Sectoral Growth: All three major sectors (services, industry/construction, manufacturing) showed faster growth in Q2.
• Manufacturing: The manufacturing sector, supported by foreign investment, grew robustly, with exports increasing 18.0% in the first half of 2017.
• FDI Impact: FDI accounted for 72.0% of total goods exports in 2016 and grew by 6.5% in the first half of 2017.
• Exchange Rate: A lower trade-weighted real exchange rate due to reduced inflation and increased imports has improved export competitiveness.
• Samsung's Role: Samsung's manufacturing operations in Vietnam account for 20.0% of total exports, with the Galaxy S8 likely boosting export numbers.

Challenges

• Fiscal Consolidation: Public debt has grown three times faster than GDP, and the government has hit its 65.0% GDP debt ceiling.
• Infrastructure Funding: Delays in projects like the Ho Chi Minh City metro railway due to funding shortfalls.
• Credit Risk: Rapid credit growth (19.8% in Q1) could pose risks to the banking sector in the medium to long term.
• Bad Loans: The ratio of nonperforming loans to total outstanding loans is rising, reaching 10.1% when rescheduled debts are included.

Key Takeaways

• Exports as a Driver: Exports were a key driver of growth across the region, especially in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
• Political and External Risks: Political uncertainty in Malaysia and potential trade wars in the Philippines and Vietnam pose significant risks.
• Demographic Challenges: Taiwan faces a long-term demographic slowdown, while Vietnam must address aging populations and slow agricultural growth.
• Monetary Policy Focus: Central banks in the region are prioritizing inflation control over stimulating growth.
• Fiscal and Structural Reforms: Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are critical for long-term sustainability, though they may slow short-term growth.