2017年第三季亚太区经济展望（英文版）_30页_1mb

Asia Pacific Economic Outlook - 3rd Quarter 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the economic outlook for Australia, Indonesia, and Singapore in the third quarter of 2017, highlighting key trends, challenges, and policy responses.

Australia: Gearing up for better days, but challenges linger

Key Growth Drivers

• Exports were the main driver of growth in 2016, particularly in iron ore, coal, and LNG, which accounted for 54% of total exports.
• Australian dollar depreciation since 2014 boosted services exports, especially in tourism and education.
• The trade balance moved into a surplus in November 2016 and reached a record high in February 2017.

Economic Challenges

• Reliance on commodity exports makes the economy vulnerable to price fluctuations.
• Unemployment has risen to 5.9%, and part-time employment remains high.
• Wage growth has slowed due to structural labor market changes and technological disruptions.
• Household savings have declined due to stagnant disposable income.

Domestic Demand and Investment

• Private business investment has been in negative territory since Q1 2013.
• The contraction in mining investment has slowed GDP growth, but the trend is beginning to ease.
• Household debt is high, and prudential measures may further limit credit growth.

Government Policy

• The 2017-18 budget emphasized fiscal discipline, aiming for a surplus of AUD 7.4 billion by 2020-21.
• Infrastructure investment of AUD 75 billion over the next decade was announced.
• Immigration reforms and housing market regulations were introduced to support domestic labor and stabilize property prices.

Indonesia: GDP growth unlikely to shoot up in 2017

Economic Performance

• Real GDP growth in Q1 2017 was 5.0%, slightly above the previous quarter but below the government's 5.6% target.
• Household consumption remained the main growth driver, growing at 4.9%.
• Fixed capital investment was weak, with machinery and equipment growth at 1.4%.

Export Recovery

• Merchandise exports grew 8.0% in Q1 2017, the fastest pace since Q4 2013.
• Non-oil and gas exports and services exports were the main contributors to the recovery.
• Oil and gas export values rose 15.0% despite a 2.0% drop in volumes, indicating higher prices.

External Balances and Currency

• Merchandise trade balance has been improving since Q1 2016.
• Rupiah stabilized in 2017, gaining 0.8% against the US dollar.
• Interest rate differentials and foreign debt exposure could still pressure the rupiah.

Monetary Policy

• Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the policy rate on hold in May 2017.
• BI is cautious about credit growth, nonperforming loans, and rising inflation.
• Inflation reached 4.2% in April 2017, the highest in a year, but still within BI's target range.

Fiscal Policy

• The government's fiscal capacity is limited due to a low tax base and a 3.0% upper bound on the fiscal deficit.
• FDI inflows have not shown significant improvement, with 2016 FDI at $29.0 billion similar to 2014 levels.
• Growth is expected to remain in the 5.0–5.3% range, well below the 7.0% target.

Singapore: Designing the future in the midst of uncertainty

Economic Transition Strategy

• Singapore aims to transition to high-value-added industries by focusing on skill development, innovation, and global integration.
• The government has identified five key growth clusters: advanced manufacturing, applied health sciences, smart and sustainable urban solutions, logistics and aerospace, and financial services.

Economic Performance

• Real GDP growth slowed in recent years, with 2016 growth at 2.0%.
• Manufacturing recovered in 2016, driven by electronics and biomedical sectors.
• Construction and services sectors grew more slowly in 2016 compared to 2015.

Short-Term Outlook

• Global trade is expected to increase by 3.8% in 2017, supported by improved business sentiment and stronger corporate earnings.
• Container throughput, air freight, and global PMI indicate positive trade momentum.

Labor Market and Productivity

• Singapore is reducing reliance on low-skilled foreign labor through quotas and taxes.
• Productivity growth has been slower than wage growth, with output per employed person rising just 0.5% over the last eight quarters.
• Average monthly earnings grew at 3.6%, indicating pressure on wages.

Policy and Challenges

• Government policies include expanding tax rebates, supporting businesses, and starting public sector projects.
• Private consumption has stalled due to low consumer confidence and labor redundancies.
• Aging population and low birth rates are key internal challenges.
• Long-term growth is expected to be moderate, with Ministry of Trade and Industry forecasting 1.0–3.0% growth for 2017.

Key Takeaways

• Australia is benefiting from export growth, particularly in commodities and services, but faces structural challenges in the labor market and domestic demand.
• Indonesia is struggling to meet its growth targets, with export recovery offering some relief, but fiscal and monetary constraints are limiting growth potential.
• Singapore is transitioning to high-value industries, but faces external trade risks and internal structural issues, including aging population and low productivity.

Additional Notes

• The report highlights the importance of global trade in the region's economic performance.
• Policy responses in all three countries are aimed at boosting growth, stabilizing markets, and improving long-term competitiveness.
• Structural reforms and investment in infrastructure are key to future growth.