2017年第三季亚太区经济展望_32页-1mb

Asia Pacific Economic Outlook - 3rd Quarter 2017 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of economic conditions and outlooks in Australia, Indonesia, and Singapore for the third quarter of 2017. It highlights the drivers of growth, challenges faced, and government policy responses in each country.

Australia

Key Points

• Economic Performance: Australia's economy showed signs of improvement in 2017, with exports continuing to drive growth.
• Export Drivers: Iron ore, coal, and LNG accounted for 54% of exports in 2016, and their prices have been recovering, boosting export volumes and values.
• Services Sector: The depreciation of the Australian dollar since 2014 has supported services exports, especially in tourism and education.
• Trade Balance: The trade balance turned into a surplus in November 2016 and reached a record high in February 2017.
• Challenges:
  • Reliance on commodity exports makes the economy vulnerable to price fluctuations.
  • Weak labor market and domestic demand remain persistent issues.
  • Unemployment rate rose to 5.9%, with high part-time employment and low average work hours.
  • Stagnant wages and household savings rate due to spare labor capacity and structural changes.
  • The housing market faces pressure from high household debt and new prudential measures.
• Government Policy:
  • The 2017-18 budget aimed to achieve a fiscal surplus of AUD 7.4 billion by 2020-21.
  • Increased infrastructure spending (AUD 75 billion over 10 years) and measures to control immigration and housing prices were introduced.

Indonesia

Key Points

• Economic Performance: Indonesia's GDP growth in Q1 2017 was 5.0%, slightly above the previous quarter but below the government's 5.6% target.
• Growth Drivers:
  • Household consumption remained the main growth driver, increasing by 4.9% in Q1.
  • Exports saw a strong recovery, with merchandise exports rising 8.0% in Q1.
• Export Recovery:
  • Non-oil and gas exports and services exports contributed to the recovery.
  • Export values grew significantly, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing strong performance.
• External Balances:
  • The merchandise trade balance improved, and the rupiah stabilized against the USD.
  • Despite this, rising interest rate differentials and foreign debt exposure pose risks to the currency.
• Challenges:
  • The central bank (BI) is unlikely to cut rates further due to concerns over NPLs and inflation.
  • Fiscal policy is constrained by a low tax base and a legal upper limit on the fiscal deficit.
  • FDI growth has been sluggish, with restrictions on mining affecting inflows.
• Growth Outlook:
  • Growth is expected to remain in the 5.0–5.3% range in 2017.
  • The economy's potential is not being fully realized due to structural and external constraints.

Singapore

Key Points

• Economic Performance: Singapore's real GDP growth slowed in 2016 to 2.0%, down from previous years.
• Transition Strategy:
  • The government aims to move toward high-value-added industries by focusing on skill development, innovation, and global integration.
  • Five key clusters for growth: advanced manufacturing, applied health sciences, smart and sustainable urban solutions, logistics and aerospace, and financial services.
• Challenges:
  • External: Global trade slowdown and potential protectionist policies in developed countries could hinder growth.
  • Internal: An aging population is reducing the old-age support ratio (OASR) from 4.7 in 2016 to 2.3 by 2030.
  • Productivity: Productivity growth has been weak, outpaced by wage increases.
• Short-Term Outlook:
  • Economic performance will depend on global trade momentum and policy changes in China.
  • Private construction spending is weak, but early public sector projects may offset this.
  • Consumer spending is likely to remain subdued due to low confidence and labor market issues.
  • Improved access to training and real wage gains could boost consumption in the medium term.
• Growth Forecast:
  • The Ministry of Trade and Industry forecasts growth between 1.0 and 3.0% in 2017.
  • This is expected to be the new normal as Singapore faces both external and internal challenges.

Main Views

• Australia: Despite a strong export-driven recovery, the economy is still vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and weak domestic demand.
• Indonesia: While there is some optimism due to export recovery and improved external balances, growth is unlikely to exceed the government's target due to fiscal and monetary constraints.
• Singapore: The country is transitioning toward higher-value industries, but faces challenges from an aging population, weak productivity, and reliance on global trade.

Key Information

• Australia:

  • Exports drove growth in 2016, with LNG, iron ore, and coal contributing 54%.
  • Services trade balance improved due to a weaker AUD.
  • Labor market weakness and low domestic demand are long-standing challenges.
  • Fiscal surplus target set for 2020-21, with significant infrastructure investment planned.

• Indonesia:

  • Q1 2017 GDP growth was 5.0%, below the 5.6% target.
  • Exports expanded 8.0%, with non-oil and gas and services leading the recovery.
  • External balances improved, and the rupiah stabilized.
  • BI is unlikely to cut rates further, and fiscal policy is constrained.
  • FDI growth is limited by mining restrictions.

• Singapore:

  • Real GDP growth slowed to 2.0% in 2016.
  • The government is focusing on skill development and innovation for future growth.
  • Five key economic clusters are targeted for development.
  • Aging population and weak productivity are internal challenges.
  • Global trade and business sentiment will be critical for short-term growth.
  • Growth forecast for 2017 is between 1.0 and 3.0%.

Conclusion

The Asia Pacific region faces a mix of opportunities and challenges in 2017. Australia's export-driven recovery is promising, but structural issues persist. Indonesia's growth remains subdued, with export recovery not enough to meet its ambitious targets. Singapore is navigating a complex transition to a high-value-added economy, with both internal and external risks to consider. Each country's outlook is shaped by its unique economic structure and policy responses.