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Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for global commodity markets, focusing on the impact of the pandemic, war in Ukraine, and recession on aluminum and copper prices. It also covers broader market developments and forecasts for energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Commodity Price Trends

• Global Growth Slowdown and Recession Concerns: A sharp global growth slowdown and fears of an impending recession are putting downward pressure on commodity prices.
• Currency Depreciation Impact: In many economies, domestic-currency prices remain elevated due to U.S. dollar strength, deepening food and energy crises in developing countries.
• Price Volatility: Commodity prices have shown significant volatility, especially in metals and energy, due to shifting demand and supply dynamics.

Energy Market Outlook

• Energy Prices: Energy prices are expected to decline by 11% in 2023 and 12% in 2024, but will remain more than 50% above their five-year average.
• Brent Crude Oil: Prices are forecasted to average $92 per barrel in 2023, down from $100 in 2022, and $80 in 2024.
• Natural Gas and Coal: Natural gas and coal prices are also expected to ease in the next two years, but will remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• Key Risks: A global recession, reduced oil consumption in China, and supply constraints from Russia are major risks to the energy outlook.

Agricultural Market Outlook

• Agricultural Prices: Prices are projected to decline by 5% in 2023 and stabilize in 2024.
• Supply and Demand: Improved global wheat production, stable rice supply, and resumption of Ukrainian grain exports are contributing to the decline. However, risks include supply disruptions, adverse weather, and higher energy costs.
• Food Insecurity: The number of people facing severe food insecurity is expected to exceed 200 million in 2022, particularly in conflict-affected and weather-vulnerable regions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Metals and Minerals Outlook

• Aluminum and Copper Prices: Both have seen sharp declines since their pandemic peaks, driven by global growth slowdowns and recession fears. Copper prices fell from their March 2022 peak, while aluminum prices were impacted by reduced demand.
• Long-Term Trends: Metal prices are expected to stabilize in 2024, but long-term demand is likely to increase due to the energy transition and growth in renewables.
• Opportunities and Risks: Metal-exporting countries may benefit from the energy transition but also face increased exposure to price volatility. Strong fiscal and monetary frameworks are needed to manage these risks.

Special Focus: Pandemic, War, Recession

• Price Fluctuations: The pandemic, war in Ukraine, and recession concerns have caused large swings in aluminum and copper prices.
• Drivers of Price Changes: The price rebound after the pandemic was driven by both economic recovery and supply factors. Since March 2022, global growth slowdown and recession fears have contributed to price declines.
• Future Outlook: Prices are expected to remain volatile as the energy transition continues and demand shifts from fossil fuels to renewables, which are metals-intensive.

Key Risks

• Short-Term Risks: Supply disruptions, adverse weather, and reduced oil consumption due to China's slowdown or stricter pandemic restrictions.
• Medium-Term Risks: Uncertainty in production responses from key countries, including the U.S. and Russia, and the effectiveness of proposed oil price caps.
• Long-Term Risks: The global shift to renewable energy may reduce demand for fossil fuels, affecting prices and production in some countries.

Price Forecasts (Nominal U.S. Dollars)

Key Takeaways

• Commodity prices have been heavily influenced by global macroeconomic conditions, including the pandemic, war, and recession.
• Currency depreciation in many countries has kept domestic prices high, exacerbating inflation and food insecurity.
• Energy prices are expected to fall over the next two years but will remain above historical averages.
• Agricultural prices are projected to decline in 2023, but face potential upward pressures from supply disruptions and energy costs.
• Metals and minerals prices are expected to stabilize in 2024, with long-term growth driven by the energy transition.
• Policymakers need to prepare for price volatility and ensure strong fiscal and monetary frameworks to manage the transition and support growth in metal-exporting countries.