2016年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon_Economic_Monitor_Fall_2016___The_Big_Swap_-_Dollars_for_Trust_48页_1mb

Lebanon Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Lebanon Economic Monitor (Fall 2016) provides an in-depth analysis of Lebanon's economic performance and policy responses over the past six months. It highlights the challenges posed by political instability, the ongoing impact of the Syrian conflict, and the role of the Central Bank of Lebanon (BdL) in managing economic and financial risks. The report also assesses the state of the real economy, fiscal policy, and the external sector, with a focus on how these factors interact to shape the country's economic outlook.

Main Views

Political and Institutional Challenges

• Lebanon's governance system is severely hampered by political stalemate, including a prolonged presidential vacancy, infrequent parliamentary sessions, and a cabinet unable to reach consensus.
• These challenges have contributed to the collapse of public services (electricity, water, waste treatment) and persistent corruption.
• Despite these issues, the country continues to host the largest proportion of Syrian refugees per capita, placing additional strain on public finances.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal policy remains paralyzed, with no significant changes in the overall fiscal stance.
• The primary surplus was maintained in 2016, but the general fiscal deficit increased by 10% year-on-year to 3.3% of GDP.
• Public expenditures rose, especially due to large transfers to municipalities, contributing to the widening deficit.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 8% of GDP for the year, with a primary surplus of 1.8% of GDP.
• Despite the surplus, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains at an unsustainable level, projected to reach 149% by the end of 2016.

Economic Activity and Sectoral Performance

• Economic activity in 2016 showed a slight recovery, driven by the construction and tourism sectors.
• Real GDP growth was estimated at 1.3% in 2015 and is projected to rise to 1.8% in 2016, supported by a moderate first half of the year.
• Construction permits and cement deliveries increased by 6.5% and 9.9% respectively in H1-2016, indicating a rebound.
• Tourism saw a 7.7% increase in arrivals, but hotel occupancy rates declined, suggesting that much of the growth was due to Lebanese expatriates returning after a period of reduced travel due to security concerns.

External Sector

• The current account deficit widened significantly in 2016, reaching 19% of GDP.
• This is attributed to a rise in merchandise imports (up 5% yoy) and a decline in exports due to the closure of the last Syrian border route in May 2015.
• The deficit reflects Lebanon's vulnerability to external shocks and its reliance on volatile capital inflows.

BdL's Role and Interventions

• The BdL has been a key player in managing economic and financial challenges, especially through subsidized lending to the private sector.
• Since 2013, successive stimulus packages have supported the real estate and construction sectors.
• In 2016, the BdL executed a financial swap to bolster foreign exchange reserves and local currency capitalization, but such measures may increase macro-financial risks in the absence of structural reforms.

Key Information

Key Economic Indicators

• Real GDP Growth (2015): 1.3%
• Real GDP Growth (2016 Projection): 1.8%
• Fiscal Deficit (2016, April): 3.3% of GDP
• Fiscal Deficit (2016 Projection): 8% of GDP
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2016 Projection): 149%
• Current Account Deficit (2016 Projection): 19% of GDP

Population and Refugees

• Syrian refugees constitute a significant portion of Lebanon's population, with the World Bank now including them in population estimates.
• Per capita GDP declined by 8.3% from 2012 to 2015 due to the inclusion of refugees, despite a 4.1% increase if they were excluded.
• The informal economy absorbs the majority of refugee employment, with many working in low-skilled sectors such as construction, agriculture, and domestic services.

Sectoral Contributions

• Construction: A major driver of economic recovery in 2016, with increased permits and cement deliveries.
• Tourism: Benefited from expatriate visitors, but suffered from low occupancy rates.
• Real Estate: Received substantial support through BdL's subsidized loan programs.
• ICT and Pharmaceuticals: Periphery sectors that have seen growth in internet and broadband usage.

Policy and Financial Interventions

• BdL's swap with the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and commercial banks helped stabilize the financial system.
• The swap improved foreign exchange reserves and local currency capitalization, but may not be sustainable without structural reforms.
• BdL's subsidized loans continue to support private sector activity, particularly in real estate and construction.

Conclusion

The report underscores the fragility of Lebanon's economy and the limitations of its governance system in addressing deep-rooted challenges. While the BdL has played a critical role in stabilizing the economy and supporting key sectors, the lack of structural reforms and political will continues to hinder long-term recovery. The report calls for a more sustainable approach to fiscal and monetary policy, emphasizing the need for reform to prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from continuing on an unsustainable path.