2021-11-28-牛津经济研究院-Norway_Outlook_for_2022_holding_firm_despite_inflation_and_Covid_headwinds_1页_325kb

Norway Economic Forecast Summary (as of 26 Nov 2021)

GDP Growth Projections

• Norway's 2021 mainland GDP growth is maintained at 3.9%, consistent with the 2.6% quarterly growth in Q3, which met expectations.
• 2022 growth is forecast at 4.1%, supported by robust private consumption despite supply chain normalizations; however, manufacturing remains weak and below prior peaks.

Key Growth Drivers

• Consumption, particularly services spending, was the primary growth factor in Q3, rising by 6%.
• Exports increased by 6.5% amid strong European demand for oil and natural gas, but manufacturing exports failed to exceed Q1 2021 levels.

Downside Risks

• Rising COVID-19 cases in Norway and abroad pose a risk through winter and into the new year, although no immediate forecast revisions are warranted.

Inflation Outlook

• October 2021 inflation stood at 3.5%, below expectations due to peaked electricity prices.
• Inflation is expected to average 3.4% in 2021, followed by a disinflationary period starting in Q1 2022, averaging around 1.6%.

Other Economic Indicators

• Industrial production is projected to grow slowly in H1 2022 amid waning supply chain bottlenecks.
• The krone has appreciated due to high oil prices and hawkish Norges Bank policy, impacting the current account, expected to reach approximately 20% of GDP by year-end.
• Higher short-term and long-term interest rates reflect policy tightening, while government budget balance improves modestly.

Contact: Rory Fennessy, Oxford Economics