2021-09-30-牛津经济研究院-Norway_Central_bank_begins_the_rate_hiking_cycle_amid_strong_growth_outlook_1页_455kb
报告摘要
Norway Economic Forecast Summary
Core Content
The document presents an economic forecast for Norway, focusing on mainland GDP growth, inflation, and key macroeconomic indicators for the years 2021 to 2024. It outlines the current state of the economy, the factors influencing growth, and the expectations for future performance.
Mainland GDP Growth
- 2021 Forecast: The mainland GDP growth is expected to be 4.1%, unchanged from previous estimates.
- 2022 Forecast: Growth is also forecasted at 4.1%, indicating a sustained recovery.
- 2023 and 2024 Forecast: Growth is expected to moderate to 1.8% in both years, reflecting a return to more stable economic conditions.
The economy has already rebounded strongly from the pandemic, with domestic restrictions eased and the virus largely under control. However, global supply chain disruptions and elevated inflation are expected to act as headwinds.
Inflation Outlook
- 2021 Inflation Forecast: Raised to 3.1% due to the significant impact of energy prices, particularly electricity prices, which nearly doubled in August.
- Core Inflation: Remains weak at 1%, indicating that inflation is primarily driven by energy costs.
- 2022 Inflation Forecast: Expected to decrease to 2.2%, suggesting a gradual easing of inflationary pressures.
The high inflation rate is affecting consumer purchasing power, with real wage growth being a concern for the remainder of the year.
Labour Market
- Employment Recovery: There has been a remarkable recovery in employment this year, accompanied by a rising participation rate.
- Unemployment Figures: These figures may not fully reflect the true health of the labour market due to the participation rate increase.
- Earnings Growth: Earnings growth has not seen a significant pickup, indicating potential challenges in the real wage growth.
The risk of labour shortages remains low, but the lack of wage growth could impact consumer spending and overall economic activity.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
| Indicator | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Demand | 2.3 | -5.2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Private Consumption | 1.5 | -7.3 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Fixed Investment | 4.8 | -3.8 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Stockbuilding (% of GDP) | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Government Consumption | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Exports of Goods and Services | 0.5 | -0.8 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Imports of Goods and Services | 4.7 | -12.0 | -0.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| GDP | 0.9 | -1.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Mainland GDP* | 2.4 | -3.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Industrial Production | -5.0 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Consumer Prices, average | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Current Balance (% of GDP) | 2.8 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Government Budget (% of GDP) | 8.9 | -0.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Short-Term Interest Rates (%) | 1.55 | 0.70 | 0.43 | 0.93 | 1.13 | 1.45 |
| Long-Term Interest Rates (%) | 1.49 | 0.82 | 1.37 | 1.87 | 2.09 | 2.15 |
| Exchange Rate (Per US$), average | 8.80 | 9.41 | 8.53 | 8.04 | 7.63 | 7.30 |
| Exchange Rate (Per Euro), average | 9.85 | 10.73 | 10.22 | 9.78 | 9.40 | 9.06 |
*Excludes offshore petroleum production
Main Points
- Economic Recovery: The mainland economy is now operating above its pre-pandemic level, with strong rebounds in 2021 and a continued growth forecast for 2022.
- Growth Drivers: Services sector spending is recovering, while goods spending remains elevated. The overall growth is expected to be supported by exports and private consumption.
- Inflation Concerns: Inflation is expected to be above target in 2021, primarily due to energy prices. Core inflation remains weak, but Norges Bank is expected to increase interest rates twice before year-end.
- Labour Market: Employment has rebounded significantly, but the participation rate increase may mask underlying issues. Earnings growth has not picked up, and real wage growth is expected to be a concern.
- Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Short-term and long-term interest rates are expected to rise, while the exchange rate is projected to decline against both the US dollar and the Euro.
Key Information
- GDP Growth: Expected to remain at 4.1% in 2021 and 2022, then moderate to 1.8% in 2023 and 2024.
- Inflation: Likely to be 3.1% in 2021, then 2.2% in 2022, with a stabilization at 2.0% for 2023 and 2024.
- Interest Rates: Short-term rates are expected to rise from 0.43% in 2021 to 1.45% in 2024, with long-term rates also increasing.
- Exchange Rates: The Norwegian Krone is expected to weaken against both the US dollar and the Euro, with the average exchange rate declining from 8.53 in 2021 to 7.30 in 2024.
- Government Budget: The government budget is expected to improve, with a surplus in 2021 and a balanced budget in 2022, followed by a gradual increase in deficit in subsequent years.
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