2022-02-23-牛津经济研究院-Sweden_2022_GDP_growth_forecast_raised,_but_high_inflation_is_a_key_downside_risk_1页_71kb
报告摘要
Sweden Economic Forecast Summary
Core Content Overview
This document presents the updated economic forecast for Sweden, focusing on GDP growth, inflation, and monetary policy outlook. It is authored by Daniel Kral, a Senior Economist, and includes key data points and projections for the years 2019 through 2024.
Key Economic Indicators and Projections
GDP Growth
- 2022 Forecast: Raised to 3.6% from 3.3%, due to a stronger-than-expected Q4 2021 GDP growth of 1.4% q/q.
- Output Gap: Estimated to have turned positive, indicating the economy is now above its pre-pandemic potential.
- 2023 and 2024: Expected to grow at 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.
Consumption and Investment
- Private Consumption: Projected to grow at 4.5% in 2022, down from 5.5% in 2021.
- Fixed Investment: Expected to grow at 3.7% in 2022, slightly lower than the 6.5% in 2021.
- Stockbuilding: A small but positive contribution to GDP, at 0.4% in 2022, down from 0.3% in 2021.
Government Spending
- Government Consumption: Projected to grow at 1.3% in 2022, down from 3.2% in 2021.
- Government Budget: Expected to improve, with a deficit of -0.4% of GDP in 2023 and 0.0% in 2024.
Trade and Current Balance
- Exports of Goods and Services: Projected to grow at 3.8% in 2022, down from 6.9% in 2021.
- Imports of Goods and Services: Expected to grow at 3.8% in 2022, slightly lower than the 8.5% in 2021.
- Current Balance: Expected to remain stable at 4.5% of GDP in 2022, with a slight increase to 4.8% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024.
Inflation Outlook
- Headline CPI Inflation (Jan 2022): 3.7% y/y, down from 3.9% in December 2021.
- Core Inflation: Surprised on the upside at 2.5% y/y, the highest since early 2009.
- 2022 Inflation Forecast: Raised to 2.6%, due to expected higher energy prices.
- 2023 and 2024: Projected to decrease to 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively.
Monetary Policy
- Riksbank's Stance: Remains highly accommodative, with the first policy rate hike expected in 2024.
- Short-Term Interest Rates: Expected to rise gradually from 0.07% in 2022 to 0.43% in 2024.
- Long-Term Interest Rates: Projected to increase from 0.57% in 2022 to 1.21% in 2024.
Exchange Rates
- Exchange Rate (vs US$): Expected to remain stable around 8.82 in 2022, decreasing to 7.67 in 2024.
- Exchange Rate (Per Euro): Projected to decrease from 10.15 in 2022 to 9.31 in 2024.
Main Views and Key Information
- GDP Growth: The 2022 GDP growth forecast has been revised upward to 3.6%, driven by a strong Q4 2021 performance. However, inflation is expected to remain elevated, posing a risk to real incomes and consumption.
- Labour Market: The job recovery is ongoing, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate due to more people entering the workforce rather than an increase in unemployment.
- Inflation Trends: Despite a slight decline in headline CPI inflation, core inflation remains high, indicating persistent price pressures. The Riksbank is expected to tighten monetary policy in 2023, even though it has not yet raised rates.
- Monetary Policy Outlook: The Riksbank is expected to maintain a stable balance sheet in 2023, with the first rate hike anticipated in 2024. Tightening is likely to follow due to broader price pressures and a strong labour market.
- Exchange Rate Trends: The Swedish krona is expected to depreciate against both the US dollar and the euro over the next few years, potentially affecting trade balances and inflation.
Summary Table
| Indicator | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Demand | 0.3% | -3.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Private Consumption | 0.7% | -4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Fixed Investment | -0.3% | -0.5% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Stockbuilding (% of GDP) | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Government Consumption | 0.3% | -1.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Exports of Goods and Services | 6.1% | -5.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| Imports of Goods and Services | 2.2% | -5.9% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| GDP | 2.0% | -3.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Industrial Production | 2.5% | -5.0% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Consumer Prices, average | 1.8% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Current Balance (% of GDP) | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Government Budget (% of GDP) | 0.5% | -2.5% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| Short-Term Interest Rates (%) | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.43% |
| Long-Term Interest Rates (%) | 0.09% | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.57% | 0.94% | 1.21% |
| Exchange Rate (vs US$), average | 9.46 | 9.21 | 8.58 | 8.82 | 8.12 | 7.67 |
| Exchange Rate (Per Euro), average | 10.59 | 10.49 | 10.14 | 10.15 | 9.68 | 9.31 |
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
