世界银行-世界银行东亚及太平洋经济更新_2025年4月_更长远的视角（英）_115页_8mb

报告摘要

Growth: EAP region growth slowed to 4.0% in 2025, with China at 4.0% and the rest of the region at 4.2%. Pacific Island Countries growth decreased to 2.5%. (Source: WDI projections)
Primary Drivers: Declined private consumption in China, weaker external demand, increased trade restrictions, and global uncertainty.
Country-Specific Trends:
- China's growth slowed due to trade tensions and property sector weakness.
- Philippines and Thailand experienced consumption-driven growth.
- Pacific Island Countries faced lower external demand and post-pandemic slowdown.

Challenge: EAP economies are highly exposed to trade restrictions and foreign protectionism (e.g., antidumping measures). Trade dependency increases vulnerability to global protectionist trends.
Response: Utilize automation and technology to offset declining labor force participation; deepen regional trade agreements (e.g., RCEP/CPTPP) to enhance market access and reduce protectionist impacts.

Challenge: Region contributes significantly to global emissions but faces severe climate impacts (e.g., rising sea levels, extreme weather). Climate policies (e.g., CBAM, EUDR) may restrict trade opportunities.
Response: Adopt viable green technologies (e.g., renewable energy), invest in climate adaptation to reduce economic losses, and collaborate regionally to address emissions and trade barriers.

Challenge: Rapid population aging reduces labor productivity, increases pension burdens, and shifts comparative advantage toward service industries, away from age-depreciating skill sectors.
Response: Reform pension systems, encourage longer working lives, enhance training programs for older workers, and manage migration to balance workforce shortages.

Technological Change: Automation and digital transformation can boost productivity, reduce dependence on labor-intensive industries, and address skill mismatches.
Domestic Reforms: Enhance fiscal sustainability through pension parametric reforms, boost labor force participation (especially female), and improve financial sector resilience.
International Cooperation: Manage migration flows and climate collaboration to address demographic and emission challenges, ensuring mutually beneficial partnerships.

Short-Term includes declining growth due to higher uncertainty and trade barriers; countries are mitigating risks through stimulus measures, monetary easing, and reforms.
Long-Term trends emphasize the need for adaptive strategies to climate change, aging populations, and global integration, which will collectively influence sustainable growth by 2030.

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