深度-海外发展研究所-印度气候变化的代价：印度面临的气候相关风险及其经济和社会代价（英文）-2021.6-31页_278kb

Summary of "The Costs of Climate Change in India"

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the climate-related risks facing India and their economic and social implications. It highlights the current and projected impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events, water scarcity, and rising sea levels, and examines the associated costs to the Indian economy and vulnerable populations. The report also explores the potential benefits of transitioning to a low-carbon development path and the importance of addressing climate change in India's broader development strategy.

Main Points

Climate Change Impacts in India

• Current Climate Changes:

  • India has experienced a rise in average temperature of 0.62°C over the last 100 years.
  • Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, with many cities reporting temperatures above 48°C in 2020.
  • Heavy rainfall events have increased threefold since 1950, though total precipitation is declining.
  • 1 billion people in India face severe water scarcity for at least one month of the year, with 180 million experiencing it year-round.
  • Rising sea levels are a growing concern, with the north Indian Ocean rising at 3.2 mm per year over the last two decades.

• Projected Climate Changes:

  • By 2064, India is expected to have 2 more heatwaves per year or 12–18 additional high-temperature days.
  • In Delhi, the maximum temperature during the hottest month is projected to reach 38–43°C by 2071–2099.
  • The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers are expected to see a decline in water flow by 8.4%, 17.6%, and 19.6% respectively by mid-century.
  • Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are projected to nearly double by 2070–2100.
  • Sea levels are expected to rise by 20–30 cm by the end of the century along the Indian coast.

Economic and Social Costs

• Economic Costs:

  • The economic costs of climate change are significant, with Cyclone Amphan in 2020 affecting 13 million people and causing over $13 billion in damage.
  • A 1°C increase in global warming is forecast to cost India 3% of GDP, while 3°C could cost 10% of GDP annually.
  • A 90% reduction in GDP by 2100 is predicted in a 3°C warming scenario, based on historical temperature-GDP relationships.
  • Declining agricultural productivity and rising cereal prices could increase India's national poverty rate by 3.5% by 2040, equivalent to 50 million more poor people.

• Social Costs:

  • Low-income and marginalised groups are disproportionately affected by climate change.
  • Sustained high temperatures impact those working outdoors and living in poorly ventilated homes.
  • Floods, storm surges, and cyclones disproportionately affect low-income urban and rural communities.
  • 91% of adults in India have less than $10,000 in wealth, while 0.6% have over $100,000, and 1,500 adults have more than $100 million in wealth.

Low-Carbon Development Opportunities

• A low-carbon development path could yield immediate benefits such as cleaner air, greater energy security, faster job creation, and improved access to jobs and services.
• India's climate targets are considered 2°C compatible, but current policies may lead to warming of at least 3°C by the end of the century.
• A just transition to lower carbon emissions is essential for securing long-term prosperity and economic competitiveness.

Key Information

• India's Vulnerability:

  • A third of the population lives along the coast, where sea-level rise and storm surges are increasing.
  • 1,500 adults in India hold over $100 million in wealth, highlighting the extreme inequality in the country.
  • Water scarcity is a critical issue, with 1 billion people facing severe shortages for at least one month of the year.

• Climate-Related Risks:

  • Heatwaves: Increasing in frequency and severity, with significant human and economic impacts.
  • Flooding: More frequent and severe due to heavy rainfall and glacial melt.
  • Sea-Level Rise: Threatening coastal infrastructure, property, and low-income communities.
  • Storms and Cyclones: Projected to increase in frequency and intensity, especially in the Bay of Bengal.

• Policy and Development Context:

  • Climate change is an existential threat that will multiply risks in an already unequal society.
  • India's development goals are intertwined with the need to adapt to climate change.
  • Low-carbon development is seen as a way to achieve a triple win: environmental sustainability, economic growth, and social equity.

• Economic Modelling Insights:

  • Economic costs are influenced by development trajectories, infrastructure investment, and spatial planning.
  • Different studies predict varying GDP losses depending on global warming levels and model assumptions.

Conclusion

The document underscores the urgent need for climate action in India, emphasizing that current policies are insufficient to prevent severe warming and its associated economic and social costs. It calls for international cooperation and domestic adaptation strategies to mitigate inequality and secure sustainable development. A just and low-carbon transition is highlighted as a crucial pathway to reduce long-term risks and enhance economic and social resilience.