深度-东西方中心-美国气候变化：关键部门的指标和考虑因素（英文）-2021.6-64页_10mb

Climate Change in American Samoa: Summary

Core Content

This report, Climate Change in American Samoa: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, is part of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) series, developed by a collaborative group of federal, state, and local agencies, NGOs, academia, businesses, and communities. It provides a detailed analysis of climate change indicators and their implications for American Samoa, focusing on key sectors such as health, water resources, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Main Points

Climate Change Overview

• Climate change is a global phenomenon with significant local impacts in American Samoa.
• The report highlights that the climate is changing due to human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from fossil fuel use and land-use changes.
• The warming trend is unprecedented in modern history and is expected to continue in the coming decades.

Key Climate Indicators and Changes

• Air Temperature: Average annual temperature in American Samoa has increased from 1967 to 2020, with a rate of 0.04°F per year. By 2050, it is projected to rise by 1.3–3.4°F, and by 2090, up to 3.6–7.2°F.
• Rainfall: Rainfall patterns are highly variable, with more extreme rainfall events expected to become more frequent and intense. While some models suggest a slight increase in annual rainfall, others indicate potential decreases.
• Extreme Weather Events: The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones are projected to increase, leading to greater risks of flooding and coastal erosion.

Impacts on Key Sectors

• Health: Changes in rainfall and temperature are expected to increase mosquito populations, raising the risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and lymphatic filariasis. Vulnerable populations, such as those without proper housing or access to clean water, are at higher risk.
• Water Resources: Rising temperatures increase water demand and reduce availability. Sea level rise also threatens groundwater systems, especially in low-lying coastal areas.
• Infrastructure: Coastal properties and infrastructure are increasingly affected by flooding and tidal erosion. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate these issues in the coming decades.
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Changes in temperature, rainfall, and storm patterns are leading to the spread of invasive species and reduced support for native species. Coral reefs are especially vulnerable to bleaching due to ocean warming, which impacts both the economy and natural protection against storms.
• Equity Considerations: Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, low-income communities, and those living in coastal or rural areas. Traditional land and marine tenure systems complicate relocation efforts.

Adaptive Strategies and Research Needs

• The report emphasizes the importance of improving knowledge and awareness among communities and stakeholders.
• Collaboration and communication across agencies and sectors are crucial for enhancing resilience.
• Research and data collection are necessary to better understand climate impacts and inform adaptive management strategies.

Key Information

• PIRCA Collaboration: The report is a collaborative effort involving multiple stakeholders, including NOAA, the East-West Center, and local agencies.
• Data Sources: The findings are based on published research, climate models, and data from the NOAA GHCN-Daily database.
• Future Scenarios: Two main emission scenarios are considered: the "high scenario" (continued increase in GHG emissions) and the "low scenario" (significant reduction in emissions).
• Cultural and Historical Considerations: Communities are concerned about preserving their ancestral lands and waters, which complicates relocation and adaptation strategies.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgency of addressing climate change in American Samoa, highlighting the need for adaptive policies and strategies across various sectors. It serves as a guide for decision-makers to understand the current and future impacts of climate change and to take informed actions to protect both people and the environment.