2024-06-02-IMF-西非经货联盟的气候变化_趋势_宏观关键性和未来的选择（英）_16页_1mb

IMF Selected Issues Paper: Climate Change in the WAEMU

Summary

This IMF report synthesizes climate change impacts, macroeconomic risks, and adaptation options in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).

Climate Trends

• WAEMU has experienced rising temperatures (average increase of 0.4-0.9°C in 2017-2021) and increasingly frequent, large-scale climate-related disasters (65% of 232 events in 1966-2022 occurred in the last 23 years). Droughts and floods are the most common disaster types.

Macro-Criticality

• Climate change disproportionately affects WAEMU due to its heavy reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture, which employs over 53% of the population and contributes 26% to regional GDP. Temperature shocks and erratic rainfall significantly impair agricultural production, exacerbating food insecurity and hindering poverty reduction efforts.
• Climate shocks collectively threaten economic growth, fiscal sustainability, external balances, social outcomes, and human capital accumulation. Unmitigated climate change could reduce GDP in countries such as Mali by up to 11% by 2050.

Adaptation and Financing

• Adaptation strategies are crucial given the regional's vulnerability and limited mitigation impact globally. Implementation of climate actions requires substantial resources, estimated at US$79 billion over the medium term, far exceeding current climate finance flows.
• Recommendations include diversifying financing sources, enhancing regional cooperation for climate-resilient infrastructure, and aligning policy measures with National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and structural reforms to create fiscal space.

=====Keywords=====
Temperature trends, climate-related disasters, economic growth, food security, adaptation, climate finance