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Copper Price Analysis Summary

Based on the Guantong Research report for the copper market, the following key points summarize the analysis:

• Price Movement: Shanghai Copper futures experienced a low open and closed down intraday, ending at 79,780 yuan/ton. Spot prices showed moderate premiums in both华东 and华南 regions, with LME copper at 9,905 dollars/ton.

• Fundamental Support: Copper prices remain bullish despite weak US non-farm payroll data (revised down by 911,000, exceeding expectations). Basic factors include low inventories and seasonal demand expectations for September-October. However, risks include reduced refining margins and potential supply constraints due to maintenance.

• Supply Factors: Refining costs are declining, with TC at -40.48 dollars/dry ton and RC at -4.03 cents/lb. Expected maintenance in September may lead to a production decline, tightening supply. Post-tariff import copper could increase domestic supply pressure.

• Demand Factors: Current consumption is in a seasonal slump, but grid investment is boosting copper demand. Downstream demand is weak, with spot premiums under pressure, but improved buyer interest is anticipated as the gold and silver season approaches.

• Inventory Status: Inventories are at low levels (SHFE: 19,100 tons, LME: 155,000 tons), supporting prices amid global shortages.