IRENA-关键材料：电动汽车电池（英）-2024-76页_8mb

This report by IRENA examines the supply and demand dynamics of critical materials used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries critical for the energy transition. Key findings include:

Critical Insights

• Supply & Demand Projections: By 2030, lithium demand could nearly quadruple (2.5–3.1 Mt/LCE) while nickel, graphite, and cobalt demand more than triple. Innovation as seen through LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate), LMFP (Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate), and sodium-ion batteries is substantially reducing reliance on critical materials.
• Material-Specific Outlooks:
  • Lithium: Long-term supply (150 Mt reserves) is ample but production concentration risks should be addressed.
  • Cobalt: Used in ~50% of EV batteries in 2023; however adoption of cobalt-free technologies like LFP is rapidly reducing its strategic importance.
  • Graphite: Facing supply constraints unless synthetic graphite production scales. Meanwhile silicon-graphite composites reduce natural graphite demand.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Accelerate innovation in battery chemistries
  • Streamline permitting for mining and processing
  • Promote diversification of supply chains
  • Enhance data transparency across the EV battery ecosystem
  • Facilitate capacity building and investment in developing countries
  • Advance circular economy approaches to battery recycling

The report concludes that existing material supplies can meet growing demand through a combination of responsible mining, technological innovation, and international collaboration.