IRENA-能源转型的地缘政治：关键材料（英）-2023.7-150页_18mb

Summary for Policy Makers: Geopolitics of the Energy Transition - Critical Materials

Core Content

This report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) examines the geopolitical implications of the global shift toward renewable energy, with a focus on critical materials essential for the energy transition. It highlights the growing importance of these materials in the development and deployment of clean energy technologies, such as electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and solar panels, and the associated supply chain dynamics, trade patterns, and security risks.

Main Points

• Critical Materials and Energy Transition: The energy transition is mineral- and metal-intensive, with significant demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, graphite, and rare earth elements. The report emphasizes that the demand for these materials is expected to grow rapidly as the transition progresses.

• Supply and Demand Mismatch: A mismatch between supply and demand for critical materials is already evident, with lithium showing particularly high levels of demand relative to supply.

• Criticality Assessment: The criticality of materials is dynamic and influenced by economic, geopolitical, and technological factors. There is no universally accepted definition, and countries maintain their own lists, often reflecting current technologies and global supply and demand dynamics.

• IRENA's Findings: IRENA's analysis of 35 lists reveals that 51 materials are identified as critical for the energy transition. The report underscores the importance of understanding and managing these materials to ensure a sustainable and equitable energy future.

• Geopolitical Concentration: The mining and processing of critical materials are geographically concentrated, with a few countries playing dominant roles. These include:

  • Lithium: Australia (46.9%), Chile (30.0%), China (14.6%), Argentina (4.7%), Brazil (1.6%), and Others (2.2%).
  • Cobalt: Democratic Republic of the Congo (70.0%), Indonesia (5.4%), Russian Federation (4.8%), Australia (3.2%), Canada (2.1%), Cuba (2.0%), Philippines (2.0%), and Others (10.5%).
  • Nickel: Indonesia (48.8%), Philippines (10.1%), Russian Federation (6.7%), France (New Caledonia) (5.8%), Australia (4.9%), Canada (4.0%), China (3.3%), Brazil (2.5%), and Others (13.9%).
  • Copper: Chile (23.6%), Peru (10.0%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (10.0%), China (8.6%), United States (5.9%), Russian Federation (4.5%), Indonesia (4.1%), Australia (3.7%), Zambia (3.5%), Mexico (3.3%), Kazakhstan (2.6%), Canada (2.4%), Poland (1.7%), and Others (16.1%).
  • Manganese: South Africa (35.8%), Gabon (22.9%), Australia (16.4%), China (4.9%), Ghana (4.7%), India (2.4%), Brazil (2.0%), Ukraine (2.0%), Côte d'Ivoire (1.8%), Malaysia (1.8%), and Others (5.3%).
  • Neodymium: China (45.8%), Australia (23.1%), Greenland (8.2%), Myanmar (7.4%), Brazil (4.4%), India (2.1%), and Others (9.0%).
  • Platinum: South Africa (73.6%), Russian Federation (10.5%), Zimbabwe (7.8%), Canada (3.1%), United States (1.7%), and Others (3.3%).

• Market Concentration: The mining industry is dominated by a few major companies, which control significant portions of global production and trade. The top five mining companies control 61% of lithium output and 56% of cobalt output.

• Trade and Security Risks: Trade in critical materials is much smaller in value compared to fossil fuel trade. However, the lack of broad market participation allows commodity traders to play a key role in connecting producers and consumers, which can have significant geopolitical implications.

• Strategies for Risk Reduction: The report outlines strategies for ensuring a reliable and equitable supply of critical materials, including:

  • Mitigating supply chain vulnerability.
  • Increasing domestic benefits in developing countries.
  • Promoting responsible, sustainable, and transparent supply chains.

• Policy and Governance: The report calls for enhanced policy frameworks, international cooperation, and multi-stakeholder initiatives to address the geopolitical challenges of the energy transition.

Key Information

• IRENA's Role: IRENA serves as a platform for international cooperation on renewable energy, providing policy, technology, and resource knowledge to support the transition to a sustainable energy future.

• Geopolitical Implications: The report highlights the need for proactive management of critical materials to avoid supply disruptions and ensure the success of the energy transition.

• Sustainability and Ethics: A renewables-based energy transition offers an opportunity to improve the sustainability and ethics of extractive industries, moving away from the historical issues of poor labor practices, environmental degradation, and social conflict.

• Future Outlook: The energy transition will require a dramatic increase in the supply of critical materials, and the report stresses the importance of understanding and managing these supply chains to support a low-carbon, sustainable, and equitable future.

Conclusion

The energy transition is reshaping global energy systems and creating new geopolitical dynamics centered around critical materials. IRENA emphasizes the need for a balanced and informed approach to managing these materials, ensuring their supply chains are inclusive, ethical, and sustainable. The report serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, industry leaders, researchers, and civil society actors seeking to navigate the complex challenges of the energy transition.