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Wheat Outlook Summary (WHS-14a, January 14, 2014)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of U.S. and global wheat supply, utilization, and market outlook for the 2013/14 marketing year. It highlights changes in production, consumption, and trade, as well as price projections and key factors influencing the market.

Key Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Projected Total Supplies: Unchanged at 3,008 million bushels for 2013/14.
• Supply Changes by Class:
  • Hard Red Winter (HRW): Imports increased by 5 million bushels, while production and durum supplies decreased.
  • Durum: Supplies are down due to lower imports.
  • Soft Red Winter (SRW): Supplies increased the most due to higher production and imports.
  • Hard Red Spring (HRS): Supplies are up slightly.
• Utilization:
  • Total utilization is projected down by 34 million bushels from December.
  • Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 60 million bushels, with the largest drop in HRW (25 million bushels), followed by SRW (30 million bushels) and HRS (5 million bushels).
  • Seed Use: Increased by 1 million bushels based on the Winter Wheat Seedings report.
  • Exports: Projected up by 25 million bushels to 1,125 million bushels, driven by strong sales and shipments and lower competition in Brazil's milling market.
• Ending Stocks:
  • Raised by 33 million bushels to 608 million bushels.
  • Total ending stocks are down 110 million bushels from 2012/13.
  • Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Reduced to 25.3 from 29.7, a 15% decrease.
• Farm Price Range: Projected at $6.60 to $7.00 per bushel, down 10 cents from the previous range and below the 2012/13 record of $7.77 per bushel.

International Outlook

• World Wheat Production: Increased by 1.2 million tons to 712.7 million tons, surpassing the previous record of 2011/12 by 15.4 million tons.
  • China: Production increased by 1.0 million tons to 122.0 million tons.
  • Russia: Production increased by 0.6 million tons to 52.1 million tons.
• World Wheat Trade:
  • Increased by 1.3 million tons to 155.6 million tons, setting a new record.
  • EU Exports: Broke the previous record by 0.6 million tons to 26.0 million tons.
  • Russia Exports: Increased by 0.5 million tons to 16.5 million tons.
• Foreign Consumption:
  • Total consumption is projected up by 0.5 million tons to 668.7 million tons.
  • EU Feed Use: Reduced by 1.0 million tons due to a shift toward coarse grains.
  • Philippines Feed Use: Reduced by 0.1 million tons.
  • Paraguay Seed Use: Increased by 0.2 million tons to 0.3 million tons.
• Ending Stocks:
  • Global ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.7 million tons.
  • China: Ending stocks increased slightly.
  • EU: Ending stocks are projected down by 0.2 million tons.
  • U.S. Ending Stocks: Increased by 0.9 million tons or 6%.

Winter Wheat Seedings

• Planted Area: Estimated at 41.9 million acres, down 3% from 2013.
• HRW Seedings: Up 0.5 million acres to 30.1 million acres, supported by favorable weather and high insurance guarantees.
• SRW Seedings: Down 1.6 million acres to 8.4 million acres, likely due to late-harvested row crops.
• White Wheat Seedings: Total 3.39 million acres, with HW at 0.37 million acres and SW at 3.01 million acres.
• Durum Wheat Seedings: In Arizona and California, estimated at 70,000 and 75,000 acres respectively, down slightly from 2013.

Summary of Key Trends

• U.S. Wheat Supplies: Unchanged this month but down from 2012/13.
• Utilization: Lower feed and residual use led to a slight decrease in total utilization.
• Exports: Increased due to reduced competition in Brazil and strong sales.
• Ending Stocks: Rose slightly but remain below 2012/13 levels.
• Global Production: Surpassed previous records, with China and Russia as major contributors.
• EU Shift: Continued move away from wheat feeding to barley, increasing barley supplies and export potential.
• International Trade: Reached a record high, with EU and Russia leading export increases.

Supporting Information

• Data Sources: USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and other official reports.
• Contact Information: Available for domestic and international analysts, as well as web publishing.
• Subscription and Notification: Options to receive email updates and weekly notifications for ERS reports.
• Related Resources: Links to Wheat Outlook, Grain Circular, and other relevant USDA publications.

Tables

• Table 1: Summary of U.S. market year supply and disappearance, including production, imports, exports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: Breakdown of U.S. wheat by class (HRW, HRS, SRW, White, Durum) with supply and disappearance data.

This summary captures the essential data and trends outlined in the report, providing a clear overview of the U.S. and global wheat market for the 2013/14 season.