20210211-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_Expanded_Global_Supplies_Spur_Rise_in_Trade_11页_480kb

报告摘要

Wheat Outlook Summary - February 2021

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global and U.S. wheat market outlook for the 2020/21 marketing year, highlighting changes in production, trade, consumption, and prices. It also outlines future updates and relevant policy developments.

Global Wheat Outlook

Production

Global wheat production is forecast to reach a new record high of 773.4 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons due to a larger crop in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan's production is revised up by 1.76 million tons to 14.26 million tons, driven by higher area and yield estimates in three key oblasts: North Kazakhstan, Akmola, and Kostanai.
Pakistan and Argentina experience reductions of 0.5 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, due to untimely rains and drought conditions.

Trade

Global wheat trade is forecast to rise by 1.1 million tons to 194.8 million tons, primarily due to increased exports from Kazakhstan and the European Union (EU).
EU exports are raised by 0.5 million tons due to increasingly competitive prices and strong export activity.
Kazakhstan exports are raised by 0.5 million tons, reflecting strong demand from Central Asia and increased exportable supplies.
India exports are raised by 0.4 million tons due to strong shipments and sales to nearby markets.
Brazil exports are raised by 0.3 million tons based on large shipments during December and January.
Moldova exports are reduced by 0.1 million tons due to slow shipments to the EU.
Russia exports remain unchanged, despite upcoming export tax increases. The 25-euro-per-ton tax is scheduled to take effect on February 15, and an additional 50-euro-per-ton tax will be introduced on March 1. However, most of Russia's exports are expected to occur before these taxes take effect, keeping the total export projection at 39 million tons.

Consumption

Global wheat consumption is raised by 9.8 million tons to 769.3 million tons, mainly driven by China, India, and Canada.
China's feed and residual use is up by 5 million tons to a record 30 million tons, supported by strong demand and government auction activity.
India's FSI use is increased by 3.5 million tons to 96.5 million tons, due to subsidized food distribution and strong consumption.
Canada's feed and residual use is raised based on larger-than-expected disappearance of wheat during the August-December period.

Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks are reduced by 9 million tons to 304.2 million tons, but remain record high.
China and India account for nearly all the stock adjustment this month, representing 51% and 9% of global stocks, respectively.
Exporter-held stocks are forecast to be slightly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest level since 2013/14. This tightening is expected to contribute to higher prices.

U.S. Wheat Outlook

Supply and Use

U.S. wheat supply remains at 2,974 million bushels, with no net changes in beginning stocks, production, or imports.
Aggregate food use is on pace to reach the current marketing year forecast of 965 million bushels.
Durum food use is up by 1 million bushels to a record-high 91 million bushels, driven by increased consumption of imported durum products and modest gains in durum exports and domestic production.
Non-durum food use is down by 2.6 million bushels, but durum food use has offset these declines, running 5.8 million bushels ahead of last year.

Exports

U.S. wheat exports remain at 985 million bushels, with hard red winter (HRW) exports reduced by 25 million bushels due to sluggish sales and international competition.
White wheat exports are raised by 10 million bushels to 225 million bushels, driven by strong exports from the Pacific Northwest.
Hard red spring (HRS) exports are raised by 15 million bushels to 285 million bushels, due to continued demand from China for high-quality, high-protein wheat.

Prices

U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised by 15 cents to $5 per bushel, based on rising cash and futures prices.
Wheat prices are 42 cents above the 2019/20 price and 35 cents above the 5-year average.
The price spread between wheat and corn in China has collapsed, with wheat now significantly discounted relative to corn.

Key Updates and Future Events

An update to the 2021/22 forecast for wheat, feed grains, and oilseeds will be released on February 19 as part of the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.
On February 5, the Economic Research Service released updated farm income and wealth statistics.

Conclusion

The global wheat market is experiencing increased production and expanded trade, driven by Kazakhstan's large crop and strong export activity from the EU and India. U.S. wheat prices continue to strengthen, with durum food use rising sharply due to increased imports. Exporter-held stocks are tightening, contributing to price pressures, even as global ending stocks remain at record levels. The U.S. wheat balance sheet remains unchanged from the January forecast, with no net changes in supply, exports, or domestic use.