20150619-杰富瑞-Growing_Demand_in_Solar_Not_Helping_Polysilicon_Prices_12页_536kb

报告摘要

Summary of Document Content

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the global solar PV market and polysilicon prices for 2015 and 2016. It highlights the strong growth in PV demand, particularly in Asia and the US, while noting that polysilicon prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply and inventory pressures.

Key Market Forecasts

Global PV Installation:
- Forecasted to increase by 29% YoY to 52GW in 2015.
- Expected to rise by 15% YoY to 60GW in 2016.
China:
- Will be the largest solar market in 2015, with a target of 17.8GW.
- Actual installation is expected to be 16GW, slightly below the target.
- New projects are expected to start in the second half of 2015.
- The NEA has included 1.5GW of poverty alleviation projects in the 2015 target.
Japan:
- Maintains strong PV demand due to a large approved pipeline of 50GW under the FiT scheme.
- Expected to install 9-10GW in 2015 and ~9GW in 2016.
- The FiT will be reduced in two steps in 2015, prompting developers to accelerate projects.
India:
- Solar PV installation is expected to grow rapidly, with 2GW in 2015 and 4GW in 2016.
- Ambitious targets include 100GW by 2022, with a focus on rooftop and utility-scale projects.
United States:
- PV demand is expected to remain robust as developers rush to complete projects before the ITC deadline at the end of 2016.
- Forecasted to install 8.5GW in 2015 and 10GW in 2016.

Polysilicon Price Outlook

Polysilicon prices fell by 20% to US$15.4/kg YTD in 2015.
The decline is attributed to:
- Excess inventory in the supply chain.
- New capacity additions.
- Seasonal weakness.
Forecasted polysilicon price for 2015 is ~US$17/kg, a ~20% YoY decline.
New capacity additions in 2015 are expected to be 72kt, increasing existing capacity by 21% YoY.
This will limit recovery in the second half of the year and flatten the cost curve.

Downstream Solar Investment

The downstream solar business (e.g., modules, farms) is seen as more attractive for long-term value.
Shares of GCL-Poly, JKS, and TSL are attractive valuations at 10x, 7x, and 10x 2016E P/E, respectively.

Regional and Country Analysis

China:
- PV installation is forecasted at 16GW for 2015.
- New capacity additions are expected across multiple provinces, including Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang.
- The poverty alleviation projects contribute to the overall target.
Germany:
- PV installation is expected to decline in 2015.
- The market share is projected to fall to ~15% of global PV demand.
Italy:
- PV installation is expected to increase by 29.5% in 2015, but remains lower than previous years.
Australia:
- PV installation is expected to decline slightly in 2015.
UK:
- PV installation is expected to increase by 14.4% in 2015.
France:
- PV installation is expected to increase by 7.8% in 2015.
Other regions:
- Expected to grow by ~35% in 2015.

Supply and Demand Model

Global polysilicon shipment is expected to reach 277,920 tons in 2015, up by 16% YoY.
Solar-grade polysilicon shipment is expected to be 257,920 tons in 2015.
Oversupply is expected to be ~0.0GW in 2015, indicating a balanced market.
The cost curve is expected to be flattened due to new capacity additions, which will pressure prices.

Analyst Notes

The report is authored by Joseph Fong, CFA and Howard Lau from Jefferies Hong Kong Limited.
The analysis is based on BP, EPIA, and Jefferies estimates.
Company valuations are included for several solar firms, including GCL-Poly, SunEdison, Trina Solar, and Jinkosolar.

Conclusion

While the global PV market is expected to grow significantly in 2015, polysilicon prices are likely to remain weak due to new capacity additions and inventory buildup. The downstream solar market is considered more attractive for long-term investment, with companies like GCL-Poly and Jinkosolar showing attractive valuations. The growth in PV demand is driven by China, Japan, and the US, with India showing significant potential for future expansion.