2025-06-10-花旗集团-爱信（7259）_爱信（7259.T）_维持买入——我们看好内燃机_混合动力汽车的长期增长前景_16页_678kb

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Aisin (7259.T) - Citigroup Research Summary

Investment Thesis

Citigroup rates Aisin "Buy" with a target price of ¥2,400. Aisin is a top pick in the auto parts sector due to strong long-term growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) markets, as well as sustained cash flow and shareholder returns. The thesis emphasizes resilience in ICE/HEV demand and opportunities from new powertrain orders. Valuations have factored in BEV shift risks but remain in recovery, with a high target PER reflecting growth potential.

Key Recommendations

Growth in ICE/HEV: Aisin is positioned to benefit from continued micro-mobility and HEV demand, contributing to mix improvements and profit growth.
Market Share and New Products: Expected increase in automatic transmission (AT) market share and sales of HEV/PHEV products.
Shareholder Returns: Anticipates continued returns via share buybacks (e.g., ¥120bn in May) and potential proceeds from Toyota stock sales starting in FY3/27.

Financial Outlook and Forecasts

Revenue Growth: Consistently strong from ¥4.89tn in FY3/25 to projected ¥5.19tn by FY3/27, driven by Toyota production increases.
Earnings: EPS forecasted at ¥242 for FY3/27, with double-digit profit growth expected; however, FY3/26 earnings may undershoot due to production volumes and tariffs.
Key Metrics:
- Dividend yield: 3.7% (expected rise).
- Expected share price return: 36.1% (based on target price).
- ROE and interest coverage ratio improving, indicating strengthened financial health.

Valuation and Target

Target Price: ¥2,400 (10x FY3/27 EPS of ¥242), set by applying a high-end PER multiple to future growth prospects.
PER Range: Target falls at the high end of historical PER levels (5x-10x), reflecting confidence in new powertrain demand.
Expected Total Return: 39.7% over 12 months.