【国际能源署】2024年东南亚能源展望-2024_200页_9mb

Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 Summary

Core Content

Southeast Asia is a rapidly growing and dynamic region with a significant impact on the global energy system. The region is projected to become one of the world's top five largest economies by 2030, with a population of over 720 million. Its energy demand is expected to rise sharply, contributing more than 25% of the global increase in energy demand by 2035, and surpassing the European Union's overall consumption by 2050. Despite this growth, the region faces critical challenges related to energy security, affordability, and sustainability.

Key Trends and Projections

• Energy Demand Growth: In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), energy demand is projected to grow significantly, with electricity demand increasing at 4% annually to 2035, outpacing overall energy demand growth.
• Energy Mix: Fossil fuels, particularly coal, continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for 80% of the region's rising energy demand since 2010. Coal is the largest contributor to power sector emissions and industrial energy demand.
• Renewables Growth: Renewables are expected to meet over 35% of the region's energy demand growth by 2035, driven by solar and wind expansion, though their growth lags behind global trends.
• Electricity Consumption: By 2035, electricity demand is expected to rise above 2000 TWh, more than double Japan's current demand. Cooling, due to rising air conditioning usage, will account for nearly one-third of this growth.
• Clean Cooking Access: While over 95% of households have access to electricity, only around 20% of the population has access to clean cooking technologies, with Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Cambodia being the most affected.

Climate and Policy Ambitions

• Net Zero Goals: Eight out of ten ASEAN countries have set net zero emissions targets, with most aiming for 2050, Indonesia for 2060, and Thailand for 2065.
• COP28 Alignment: Aligning with COP28 targets requires a faster transformation, with the need to cut current emissions by almost two-thirds by 2050.
• Clean Energy Transition: The transition to clean energy requires tailored strategies that address both regional and national contexts. It also involves scaling up clean technologies and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

Energy Security and Affordability

• Fossil Fuel Imports: The region's reliance on fossil fuel imports is growing, with oil and coal being the primary sources. Annual oil import costs are projected to exceed USD 200 billion by mid-century.
• Vulnerability to Price Shocks: The recent global energy crisis has exposed Southeast Asia to fuel price volatility, with fossil fuel subsidies reaching USD 105 billion in 2022.
• Gas Imports: Southeast Asia is set to become a net importer of gas by the late 2020s, with gas demand recovering to 2018 levels in 2023.

Clean Energy Opportunities

• Renewable Expansion: Solar PV and wind are expanding rapidly, but the region's renewable capacity growth is modest compared to global trends. By 2035, renewables will supply over one-third of the region's electricity.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): EV adoption is increasing, with 15% of car sales in Vietnam and 10% in Thailand in 2023. The region has the potential to exceed 25% EV share by 2035.
• Public Transport and Fuel Efficiency: Developing public transport and implementing fuel economy standards are crucial to reducing oil dependence and emissions.

Regional Cooperation and Investment

• IEA's New Office: The IEA has opened its first regional office outside Paris in Singapore, highlighting the region's strategic importance in global energy affairs.
• Clean Energy Investment: The region needs over USD 190 billion in clean energy investment by 2035 to align with climate goals, more than double the STEPS projection.
• Private and International Support: Significant private and commercial investment is needed, along with policy reforms and international financial support, to reduce the cost of capital and enhance clean energy deployment.

Challenges and Risks

• Economic Fragmentation: Rising trade barriers and economic fragmentation pose risks to the region's energy security and integration into global value chains.
• Coal Plant Modernization: The region's coal plants, many of which are less than 15 years old, require innovative strategies to reduce emissions without compromising electricity security.
• Just Transition: Ensuring a just and orderly transition for workers and local economies, particularly in coal-dependent countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, is essential.

Conclusion

Southeast Asia is at a pivotal moment in its energy transition, with the potential to lead in clean energy development and sustainability. However, achieving this will require substantial investment, policy reforms, and international collaboration. The IEA's new office in Singapore underscores the region's growing importance in global energy strategies and the shared commitment to a more secure and sustainable future.