2024-11-03-IEA-国际能源署年东南亚能源展望（英）_200页_9mb

Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 Summary

Core Content

Southeast Asia is a dynamic region with significant energy growth potential, projected to be the second-largest driver of global energy demand increase after India. The region is expected to account for 25% of the global energy demand growth by 2035 under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects current policy settings. Despite this growth, the region faces serious challenges in energy security and sustainability, including rising fossil fuel dependence and emissions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Energy Demand and Growth

• Projected Growth: Southeast Asia's energy demand is expected to rise significantly, with electricity demand growing at 4% annually to 2035, outpacing overall energy demand growth.
• Demand Drivers: The buildings sector, due to increasing air conditioning usage, is a major driver of electricity demand growth. Transport and industry also play key roles.
• Electricity Mix: By 2035, renewables (especially solar) are expected to supply over one-third of the region's electricity, while coal remains the dominant source, accounting for 35% of the energy mix.

2. Fossil Fuel Dependence and Emissions

• Fossil Fuel Use: Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) account for 80% of the region's energy demand, with coal being the largest contributor.
• Emissions: Energy-related CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by one-third by 2050. The region's economic growth remains heavily carbon-intensive.
• Oil Imports: Annual oil import costs are expected to exceed USD 200 billion by mid-century, highlighting the region's vulnerability to global price shocks.

3. Clean Energy Transition

• Renewables: Renewable energy is set to meet more than 35% of energy demand growth by 2035, but growth lags behind global trends.
• Clean Cooking Access: While over 95% of households have electricity access, only 20% of the population has access to clean cooking technologies, with significant gaps in Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Cambodia.
• Challenges: The region needs to cut emissions by almost two-thirds by 2050 to meet net zero goals. Clean energy investments are far below what is needed to achieve this, with only 2% of global clean energy spending.

4. Regional and National Policies

• Net Zero Goals: Eight out of ten ASEAN countries have set net zero emissions targets, ranging from 2050 to 2065.
• COP28 Alignment: Achieving the global net zero targets by mid-century requires faster clean energy transitions and more ambitious policies.
• IEA's Role: The IEA has opened its first regional office outside Paris in Singapore, underscoring its commitment to supporting Southeast Asia's energy transition.

5. Energy Security and Affordability

• Import Reliance: The region's reliance on fossil fuel imports, especially oil and gas, increases its vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and price volatility.
• Subsidies: Fossil fuel subsidies reached a record USD 105 billion in 2022, indicating a need for reform to support clean energy affordability.

6. Technological and Infrastructure Needs

• Grid Modernization: Investments in electricity networks are expected to more than double to USD 22 billion annually by 2035, with a focus on regional interconnections and grid flexibility.
• Flexibility Solutions: As variable renewables expand, flexibility solutions such as batteries, demand response, and low-emission dispatchable generation will become more important.

7. Economic and Employment Impact

• Clean Energy Jobs: The region has already created over 85,000 clean energy jobs since 2019, with potential for further growth.
• Just Transition: Ensuring a just and orderly transition for workers in fossil fuel-dependent industries, particularly in coal-producing countries like Indonesia and Viet Nam, is crucial.

8. Transport and Industrial Trends

• Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs are gaining traction, with 15% of car sales in Viet Nam and 10% in Thailand in 2023. The region has significant potential to increase EV adoption.
• Biofuels: Biofuels meet nearly 10% of road transport energy demand, more than double the global average. They can help reduce oil dependence and emissions.
• Industry: The industry sector, especially in manufacturing and refining, is a major driver of energy consumption and emissions, with opportunities for clean electrification and low-emission fuels.

9. Regional Cooperation and Partnerships

• ASEAN Collaboration: The IEA emphasizes the need for tailored strategies that reflect both regional and national contexts.
• Just Energy Transition Partnerships: These initiatives aim to accelerate policy action and financial support for clean energy transitions.
• IEA Office in Singapore: The establishment of the IEA's Regional Cooperation Centre in Singapore highlights the region's strategic importance and the IEA's commitment to supporting its energy goals.

Key Implications

• Affordability and Security: Strengthening energy security and affordability remains a top priority, especially in the context of global geopolitical tensions.
• Sustainability and Emissions: The region must significantly reduce emissions to meet its climate goals and align with global net zero targets.
• Investment Needs: Clean energy investment needs to increase substantially, with over USD 190 billion required in 2035, far exceeding the STEPS projection.
• Technological Innovation: Advancing clean technologies and integrating them into the energy mix is essential to reduce emissions and improve affordability.
• Policy and Financial Reform: Policy reforms and increased financial support are necessary to drive clean energy investment and ensure a just transition for workers and local economies.

Conclusion

Southeast Asia is at a pivotal moment in its energy transition, with significant growth in demand and a strong push for sustainability. While the region is making progress in renewable adoption and clean energy job creation, it still faces major challenges in reducing emissions, improving energy security, and ensuring affordable access to clean technologies. The IEA's new presence in Singapore and the collaborative efforts with ASEAN and international partners are vital to supporting the region's energy transformation.