2017年-数据局_毕马威：2017年全球汽车行业高管调查_56页_8mb

KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 Summary

Core Content

The KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 provides insights into the future of the automotive industry, highlighting key trends, challenges, and the evolving role of traditional and digital players. The survey gathered responses from nearly 1,000 executives across 42 countries, emphasizing the importance of understanding the shifting landscape of automotive technologies and business models.

Main Trends and Key Insights

• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) as #1 Key Trend

  • BEVs are seen as the most significant trend, but their success hinges on infrastructure and application.
  • 62% of executives believe BEVs will fail due to infrastructure challenges.
  • 78% of executives believe fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) will be the real breakthrough for electric mobility.
  • BEVs are not yet ready for mass adoption due to long recharging times and lack of widespread infrastructure.

• Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) Still Relevant

  • 76% of executives believe ICEs will remain important for a long time.
  • 53% believe diesel is dead, at least socially.
  • Diesel will still be a viable option in long-distance, rural, and emerging markets due to its established infrastructure.

• Autonomous Driving and Digital Ecosystems

  • Autonomous driving will redefine vehicle utility and enable service- and data-driven business models.
  • Efficient use of resources and the development of a digital ecosystem are essential for future success.
  • 89% of executives agree that measuring customer profitability is more important than unit sales.

• Cooperation and Infrastructure Challenges

  • Executives are hesitant to cooperate due to unresolved infrastructure challenges.
  • The belief in FCEVs may stem from their compatibility with existing infrastructure and traditional vehicle applications.

• Digital vs. Traditional Mindsets

  • There is a clash of cultures between the digital and automotive worlds.
  • 55% of executives believe OEMs will compete with Silicon Valley companies.
  • 82% anticipate a Silicon Valley company launching a car within the next 4 years.

• Consumer Preferences and Market Shifts

  • 59% of executives believe that half of today’s car owners will not own a car by 2025.
  • 35% of consumers prefer full hybrids, while 21% still prefer ICEs.
  • Chinese consumers and OEMs show a stronger preference for BEVs.

• Regulatory Pressure and Market Evolution

  • Regulatory pressure is a major driver for the adoption of electrification.
  • The market share of electric vehicles is expected to grow significantly by 2023, reaching up to 30% of global production if regulatory goals are met.

• Challenges in the Transition

  • The industry faces a technology-mind-shift dilemma between feasibility and social acceptance.
  • There is a need for coordinated infrastructure development and clear application distinctions.
  • The development of a comprehensive charging network is critical for overcoming range and charging anxiety.

Key Statistics

• 76% of executives believe ICEs will remain important.
• 53% believe diesel is dead.
• 78% of executives believe FCEVs are the real breakthrough.
• 62% of executives think BEVs will fail due to infrastructure.
• 59% of executives agree that customer value will be the core focus.
• 89% of executives believe independent features will become key purchasing criteria.
• 55% of executives think OEMs will compete with Silicon Valley players.
• 82% believe a Silicon Valley company will launch a car within the next 4 years.
• 35% of consumers prefer full hybrids, 21% still prefer ICEs.
• 72% of Chinese OEMs highly invest in BEVs.
• 37% of American consumers would buy an ICE as their next car.

Strategic Considerations

• OEMs must decide whether to become contract manufacturers or customer-centric service providers (Grid Master).
• The automotive industry is "lost in translation" between evolutionary, revolutionary, and disruptive trends.
• A digital ecosystem is necessary to support new service and data-driven business models.
• The shift to electric mobility requires significant investment and time, with varying progress across regions.

Conclusion

The 2017 survey highlights the automotive industry's struggle to adapt to a rapidly evolving technological and regulatory landscape. While BEVs are the top trend, their success is contingent on infrastructure and application. ICEs and diesel will remain relevant in certain markets and applications, but the industry is moving towards a more integrated and customer-focused digital ecosystem. Executives and consumers show differing preferences, and the path to the future will require balancing technological innovation with social and economic realities.