20171113-穆迪服务-Quarterly_China_Shadow_Banking_Monitor_60页_2mb

报告摘要

Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor highlights the evolving dynamics of shadow banking in China during the first half of 2017, noting a slowdown in broad shadow banking growth and the ongoing regulatory efforts to reduce financial system vulnerabilities.

Key Messages

Shadow Banking Growth Halts: Broad shadow banking assets barely grew in H1 2017, reaching RMB64.7 trillion, down from RMB64.4 trillion at end-2016. For the first time since 2012, shadow banking assets fell below the GDP growth rate, reaching 82.6% of GDP.
Regulatory Impact: Regulatory measures have led to a decline in high-risk instruments like wealth management products (WMPs) and asset management plans. The share of WMPs held by interbank investors and banks' claims on NBFIs have declined, indicating reduced interconnectedness.
Core Shadow Banking Grows: Despite the slowdown in broader shadow banking, core shadow banking (including entrusted loans, trust loans, and undiscounted bankers' acceptances) continued to expand, showing strong growth and increasing its share within the broader shadow banking sector.
Real Economy Credit Demand: Credit demand from the real economy remains strong, supported by both core shadow banking and formal bank lending. Corporate bond issuance also showed a modest uptick in Q3 2017.
Regulatory Challenges: While regulators are tightening controls, challenges persist, including the risk of systemic disruption, lack of transparency in shadow banking products, and the limited ability of the formal system to replace shadow credit.

Credit Conditions

Liquidity Constraints: The PBOC's "moderate and neutral" monetary policy has kept liquidity tight. Interbank repo rates (R007) remain significantly higher than those for depository institutions (DR007), indicating tighter conditions for non-bank financial intermediaries.
NCD Issuance: Interbank negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) issuance reached a record high of RMB2.2 trillion in September 2017, showing continued reliance on wholesale funding by small and midsize banks.
Central Bank Support: The PBOC has increased liquidity supply through long-term repo operations and other tools to help banks manage rollover pressures and wind down investment portfolios.
Consumer Loans Concerns: Rising short-term consumer loans have caught the attention of regulators, who are wary of their potential misuse for property purchases.

Composition and Trends of Shadow Banking

Shadow Banking Components: Broad shadow banking includes various components such as entrusted loans, trust loans, and WMPs. Total shadow banking assets reached RMB64.7 trillion by end-H1 2017.
Core Shadow Banking Growth: Core shadow banking, which is included in total social financing (TSF), showed continued growth, especially in trust loans and undiscounted bankers' acceptances.
Regulatory Impact on WMPs: The inclusion of WMPs in the MPA framework led to a decline in their outstanding balance, reducing regulatory arbitrage and financial system vulnerabilities.
Asset Composition Shifts: There has been a shift in WMP asset composition towards equity-like products and others, while the share of debt assets has declined. Interbank investors' share in the WMP market has also decreased.
Trust Sector Expansion: Trust loans have grown significantly in 2017, driven by regulatory changes that designate the trust sector as the primary channel for non-standard debt assets. However, trust exposure to the property and overcapacity sectors has raised concerns.

Interconnectedness and Spillover Risks to Banks

Reduced Interconnectedness: Interconnectedness between banks and NBFIs has declined modestly, with banks' net claims on NBFIs falling in Q3 2017.
Wholesale Funding Reliance: Small and midsize banks, along with securities firms, have increased their reliance on wholesale funding, which raises systemic risk.
Central Bank Funding: The PBOC's liquidity support has reduced small and midsize banks' reliance on wholesale funding, though bond financing still involves confidence-sensitive tools like NCDs.

The Growth of e-finance

Not Covered in Summary: The document does not provide detailed analysis on the growth of e-finance in this summary.

Regulatory Updates & Market Events

Regulatory Clampdown: Regulatory actions have curbed the growth of shadow banking, particularly in WMPs and asset management plans.
New MPA Rules: Starting Q1 2018, NCDs with maturities under one year will be subject to the MPA framework, which may help banks reduce reliance on wholesale funding.
CBRC Actions: The CBRC has taken measures to cool the property market and curb the use of consumer loans for home purchases.
Asset Management Regulations: The PBOC proposed a comprehensive regulatory framework for the asset management sector, aiming to enhance oversight and reduce regulatory arbitrage.

Appendix: Glossary and Notes

Total Social Financing (TSF): An official measure of broad credit in the financial system, including formal bank loans, shadow banking, direct financing, and others.
Core Shadow Banking: Components included in TSF such as entrusted loans, trust loans, and undiscounted bankers' acceptances.
NCDs (Negotiable Certificates of Deposit): Short-term wholesale funding instruments used by banks.
MPA (Macro-Prudential Assessment): A regulatory framework used to monitor and manage financial system risks.
WMPs (Wealth Management Products): Off-balance sheet products that have been under increased regulatory scrutiny.

Summary of Trends

Broad Shadow Banking: Growth stalled, with WMPs and asset management plans declining.
Core Shadow Banking: Continued growth, with trust loans and undiscounted bankers' acceptances leading the expansion.
Liquidity Management: PBOC has taken active steps to manage liquidity, including targeted RRR cuts and liquidity support mechanisms.
Interconnectedness: Reduced between banks and NBFIs, but still poses risks due to reliance on wholesale funding.
Regulatory Challenges: Ongoing efforts to reduce shadow banking risks face obstacles such as opacity, regulatory arbitrage, and the limited substitution of formal credit for shadow credit.