世界银行-哈萨克斯坦经济更新，2023-24年冬季-塑造明天：改革实现持久繁荣（英）-2024.2-38页_9mb

SHAPING TOMORROW: REFORMS FOR LASTING PROSPERITY

Key Findings

Economic Outlook

• Growth is expected to stabilize from 3.4% in 2024 to 4.5-5% in 2025, driven by oil sector recovery but slowed by external factors and sanctions risks.
• Inflation easing but remains above target (5%), requiring continued tight monetary policy.
• Current account deficit projected at 3.0-2.3% of GDP, persisting due to moderate oil prices and import demand.

Main Challenges

• Structural Weaknesses: Limited economic diversification, heavy reliance on hydrocarbons, low manufacturing contribution (12% of GDP), and uneven level playing field dominated by SOEs (state-owned enterprises).
• Productivity Stagnation: Below-average TFP growth (0.9% annually 2012-2022), hindered by weak competition, administrative burdens, and limited R&D investment.
• Human Capital Deficits: Education quality and access issues; low skills alignment with evolving industries; high automation risk (52% of jobs).

Policy Recommendations

Reforms to Boost Inclusive and Resilient Growth

1. Promote Market Contestability:

   • Strengthen competition policies, especially in network industries (telecom, transport, electricity).
   • Reform business support programs to target high-productivity growth potential firms, ensuring transparency and efficiency.

2. Boost Human Capital:

   • Increase education funding with focus on equity and quality, expanding per-capita funding and need-based grants.
   • Elevate teacher standards and align TVET (technical vocational education) with industry demands to enhance workforce skills.

3. Foster Spatial Transformation:

   • Facilitate labor mobility through training, relocation incentives, and affordable housing.
   • Devolve authority and resources to local governments to boost regional development and address territorial disparities.

Climate and Fiscal Reforms

• Green Transition: Scale renewable energy investments, phase out coal subsidies, and establish mechanisms like carbon pricing (e.g., ETS) to align with climate goals.
• Fiscal Decarbonization: Reform tax system to reduce exemptions, simplify fiscal rules, and strengthen the use of Oil Fund reserves with countercyclical fiscal stances to meet climate commitments and enhance revenue mobilization.

These reforms aim to diversify the economy, enhance productivity, reduce environmental impact, and ensure fiscal sustainability to support lasting prosperity in the face of global decarbonization trends and geopolitical risks.