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Summary of Morning Session Notice

The report provides market analysis focusing on key economic events and their potential impacts on global trade and financial markets. Key highlights include:

• US Tariffs: President Trump extended the "safeguard tariff" suspension to August 1, 2025, and will impose high tariffs on imports from countries like Japan (25%), Korea, and others, ranging from 30% to 40%. This could increase trade friction and affect corporate profitability if costs are absorbed.

• US Stock Market: Expected S&P 500 earnings growth slowed to 4% for Q2, down from 12% in Q1, with tariffs posing a risk to profits and stock performance. The Euro's potential strength could support European stocks and erode US returns.

• Global Economic Trends: Germany's industrial recovery is evident, with a 1.2%环比 increase in May output, driven by manufacturing, improving from prior declines. Overall, the global economy shows upward momentum, supported by factors like China's ongoing market reforms and potential economic stimuli.

• Monetary Policy: Goldman Sachs anticipates a 50% chance of Fed rate cuts in September, with terminal rates expected between 3%–3.25%, down from previous forecasts. This suggests easing monetary conditions.

• Technology and Trade: Energy supply is a critical limitation for AI development, with the US facing slow grid expansion while China leads in power capacity additions annually. Talks between US and Chinese finance ministers aim to address trade issues.

The report concludes with a positive outlook on global economic growth, emphasizing opportunities in international markets, while cautioning against tariff-related risks and market volatility.