2025-06-11-Jefferies-克罗格（KR）_零售销售额和客流量保持坚挺_通缩问题悄然浮现_15页_853kb

Kroger Equity Research Summary

Kroger Co. (KR) is a leading US supermarket operator, with a strong performance in its food retail segment. The June 12, 2025, equity research report highlights key positive trends in sales and foot traffic, supporting a BUY rating with a $75 price target (+16% upside from current $64.62).

Performance Highlights

• Sales Growth: U.S. food channel sales increased ~2.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, driven by accelerated pricing (over 3% YoY) despite slight volume declines. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of dynamic growth.
• Foot Traffic: Foot traffic showed its best year-over-year improvement in two years in the three months ending May, tipping y/y positive for the first time since 2023, indicating a path to volume stability even with potential share loss to competitors like club, discount, and mass retailers.
• Pricing Factors: Growth in core commodities (e.g., coffee, eggs) and increased B2B supplier investments (e.g., GIS, KHC) are bolstering pricing power, while demand for store-perimeter items supports resilience amid inflation concerns.

Rating and Price Target

• Recommended Rating: BUY, with a $75 price target based on ~13.5x 2027 EPS estimate. Earnings are projected to grow from $5.03 in 2026 to $5.53 in 2027 in the base case.
• Balance Sheet: The company has an under-levered balance sheet (debt-to-asset ratio ~2.41:1) that supports accelerated share repurchases and incremental investments.

Risks and Concerns

• Disinflation: Questions about potential pricing pressures slowing due to broader disinflation could challenge sustained revenue growth.
• Commodity Costs: JEF Commodity Index analysis suggests flattish-to-slightly declining input costs in 2026, which may reduce tailwinds.
• Competitive Pressures: Ongoing competition from Walmart, Costco, and others may impact market share and promotional activities.

Forward Outlook

• The base case projects continued store sales growth (e.g., ~2.7% in FY'25), improving gross margins (~22.9% in 2025), and digital/efficiency investments. Sustainability matters, such as emissions reduction targets, are noted but not core to immediate financial performance.

Kroger's fundamentals and resilience amid evolving consumer and economic trends reinforce the BUY recommendation.