2025-06-11-Jefferies-游戏中有多少客流量_五月客流量受日历因素推动_12页_843kb

Equity Research: US Gaming - May 2025 Foot Traffic and Market Analysis

Overview

This report analyzes US casino foot traffic in May 2025 using Placer data, indexed to January 2020. Overall foot traffic was up 2.3% year-over-year but down 9.2% from 2019 levels, reflecting ongoing post-COVID normalization and competition.

Key Findings: May 2025

• Year-over-year growth of 2.3% attributed to an extra Saturday in the month.
• Year-over-year declines from 2019: -9.2% overall, with some markets showing improvement.
• Regional highlights:
  • Ohio: +5.4% YoY, +5.9% vs. 2019.
  • Pennsylvania: +9.3% YoY, stable vs. 2019.
  • Atlantic City: +1.1% YoY, -9.3% vs. 2019.
  • Illinois: -4.3% YoY (better than 2019), +4.8% YoY.
  • Detroit: +5.6% YoY, -21.2% vs. 2019.
  • Kentucky: Down YoY but historically low YoY decline.
  • Black Hawk: +17.6% YoY but may be skewed by new competition.

Trends and Risks

• May marks the first positive YoY month for foot traffic since January, suggesting stabilization.
• Potential reversal in June due to fewer Saturdays.
• Macroeconomic challenges include rising costs for insurance, utilities, and labor, affecting operators unevenly.

Valuation and Recommendations

• Boyd Gaming (BYD): Target $84, upside driven by sports betting and deleveraging, risks include prolonged COVID impact.
• Caesars (CZR): Target $36, relies on deleveraging and sports betting, risks include high leverage and competition.
• Churchill Downs (CHDN): Target $160, partly suspended, upside in Kentucky venues; risks include inflation and competition.
• Monarch (MCRI): Target $90, upside from Black Hawk expansion; risks higher if share gains lag.
• Penn Entertainment (PENN): Target based on sports-betting synergies; risks include execution in digital gaming and license risks.

Analysts certify all views reflect personal opinions and disclose conflicts of interest. Methodology uses normalized foot traffic data from Placer.