2013年-世界发展银行全球_Uzbekistan_Economic_Report_April_2013___Economic_Development_and_Reforms_-_Achievements_and_Challenges_40页_506kb

Uzbekistan: Economic Development and Reforms – Summary

Core Content

Uzbekistan has experienced stable economic progress since the mid-2000s, characterized by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and resilience to the global financial crisis. The country has maintained a low public debt level and achieved significant growth in GDP and per capita income, alongside a reduction in poverty. However, the economy remains heavily state-controlled, with structural reforms and productivity improvements being critical for long-term sustainability.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth and Domestic Demand

• GDP Growth: Real GDP growth averaged 8 percent per year since 2004, rising to 8.4 percent in 2008-2012.
• Sectoral Shifts: Over the past 20 years, the share of industry and services in GDP has increased at the expense of agriculture, particularly cotton.
• Domestic Demand: Growth in 2012 was driven by supportive government policies and strong remittances inflows.
• Investment: Total investment maintained a 23 percent share of GDP, with local private investment benefiting from tax cuts and improved business environment.
• FDI Trends: FDI declined from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2011 to 2.1 percent in 2012, indicating limited foreign investment.

Inflation

• Persistent Inflation: Despite price controls and monetary tightening, inflation remained high.
• CPI Trends: Official CPI inflation decreased slightly from 7.6 percent in 2011 to 7 percent in 2012.
• Inflation Drivers: Liquidity injections from current account restrictions, currency depreciation expectations, and administrative price increases contributed to inflationary pressures.
• Sterilization Efforts: The Central Bank increased sterilization to curb broad money growth, but this was not sufficient to offset inflationary effects.

External Accounts

• Current Account Surplus: Declined from 5.8 percent of GDP in 2011 to 1 percent in 2012 due to lower commodity exports and higher imports.
• Export Structure: Non-commodity exports increased from 10 percent in 1992 to 23 percent in 2012.
• Import Structure: Imports shifted from food and energy to capital goods and raw materials, reflecting economic diversification.
• Trade Partners: Trade has diversified from Russia (55 percent in 1992) to include China, Kazakhstan, Korea, and the EU.

Debt Sustainability

• Low Public Debt: Public and publicly-guaranteed debt has remained low, with total external debt decreasing from 64 percent of GDP in 2001 to 12.8 percent in 2012.
• Debt Service Ratio: Stood at 4.6 percent of exports and 3.7 percent of gross international reserves in 2012.
• External Borrowing: The government is expected to maintain a low external debt/GDP ratio through 2015, primarily due to current account surpluses and high international reserves.

Structural Policies

• Fiscal Policy: The government has implemented tax cuts and simplified some business procedures, though critical reforms have been delayed.
• Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: The Central Bank has focused on sterilizing liquidity, but currency depreciation and reserve accumulation may impact inflation.
• Privatization Efforts: A new State Committee on privatization, de-monopolization, and development of competition was established in 2012 to promote market reforms.
• Investment in Privatization: In 2012–2013, 96 state assets were put up for public auction and 26 were sold, while 441 social infrastructure assets were transferred to local authorities.
• Private Sector Development: Initiatives include "college-to-business" schemes, job fairs, and the introduction of a one-stop shop principle for business permits.

Employment

• Job Creation: The government has prioritized job creation, with about one million jobs created annually from 2009 to 2012.
• Employment Programs: Included civil and public works, infrastructure development, and support for SMEs and home-based businesses.
• Unemployment: Official unemployment rate was 0.2 percent, but this does not account for the informal sector or underemployment.
• Demographic Challenge: The labor force grows at 2.9 percent per year, exceeding the 2.5 percent annual job creation rate.

Political Developments

• Elections: Parliamentary and presidential elections were scheduled for late 2014 and early 2015, respectively.
• Political Stability: President I. Karimov maintains strong control over domestic matters, with unclear succession plans.
• Governance Issues: Despite some improvements, Uzbekistan lags behind in governance indicators, particularly in transparency, rule of law, and public accountability.
• Investor Confidence: Governance issues have affected investor confidence, as seen in challenges with foreign businesses like MTS, Carlsberg, and Intercontinental Hotel.

Outlook

• Growth Projections: Economic growth is expected to remain around 7 percent in 2013–2014, driven by government investment and favorable terms of trade.
• Challenges: Structural reforms, productivity improvements, and better governance are essential for long-term growth and moving toward upper middle-income status.
• Inflation Control: Inflation is projected to remain around 7 percent in 2013, with continued pressure from liquidity injections and wage increases.
• External Surpluses: Current account and budget surpluses are expected to decline, but remain positive, supporting macroeconomic stability.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan has made notable economic progress, but its long-term growth potential is constrained by the lack of structural reforms and inefficiencies in state-controlled sectors. While the government has initiated some market-oriented policies and job creation programs, the persistence of high inflation, limited private sector participation, and weak governance indicators pose significant challenges. To achieve sustainable growth and reach upper middle-income status, Uzbekistan needs to address these issues through comprehensive reforms and improved institutional frameworks.