2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Nigeria_Selected_Issues_Paper_30页_622kb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Nigeria

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues Paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff for the periodic consultation with Nigeria. It was completed on February 17, 2015 and discusses key areas related to economic transformation, oil sector developments, financing gaps, and financial inclusion in Nigeria.

Main Issues and Key Findings

A. Regional Disparities

• Poverty rates vary significantly across regions, with the North East having the highest (50.2%) and the South West the lowest (16%) in 2012/13.
• Expenditure per capita is nearly three times higher in the South West than in the North East.
• Fiscal federalism plays a role in addressing disparities, with oil revenue derivation allocating 13% to oil-producing states, 44% to the federal government, and 43% shared among states, local, and federal capital governments.
• The South South region receives a disproportionate share of oil revenue due to its concentration of oil-producing states.
• Statutory allocations are higher in the North to compensate for lower income, despite lower population shares.

B. Current Initiatives to Support Economic Transformation

• Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS):
  • Aims to improve fertilizer access for farmers by eliminating middlemen.
  • Successfully reached 8 million farmers via the e-Wallet system.
  • Helped improve food security for 40 million persons and empowered women farmers.
• YouWiN! Program:
  • Focuses on youth entrepreneurship and job creation.
  • Provides equity grants to 1,200 entrepreneurs.
  • Aims to generate 40,000–50,000 jobs over three years.
  • Offers business training to 6,000 youth entrepreneurs.
• National Enterprise Development Program (NEDEP):
  • Aims to reduce technical and vocational gaps.
  • Includes skills acquisition, entrepreneurship training, and access to finance.
  • OLOP platform and Bank of Industry (BOI) and Industrial Training Fund (ITF) are key implementing bodies.
• National Broadband Plan:
  • Seeks to promote high-speed internet access to enhance socioeconomic development.
  • Aims to improve learning, job creation, and trade.
• Automotive Industry Development Plan:
  • Designed to revive the automotive sector through tariff incentives, tax relief, and foreign investment.
  • Aims to attract original equipment manufacturers and joint ventures.

C. Financing Gap

• The National Infrastructure Investment Plan (NIIP) requires N5–8.4 trillion annually, or 30–50 billion USD, representing an increase in investment from 15% to 17% of GDP.
• Domestic savings are estimated at N15.5 trillion (14% of GDP), but growth is constrained.
• If the loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio increases from 57% to 70%, an additional N1.3 trillion could be mobilized.
• External financing is becoming more expensive due to widening sovereign spreads and negative investor sentiment.
• Portfolio outflows are driven by exchange rate depreciation concerns.
• To ensure debt sustainability, the implementation of NIIP should be carefully prioritized and timely planned.

D. Financial Inclusion

• Financial penetration rate is low, with 30% of adults having bank accounts in 2014.
• Access to credit for MSMEs is limited, with only 2% of adults having loans in the past year.
• Formal and semi-formal financial access is less effective in consumption smoothing compared to informal access.
• Financial inclusion strategy launched in 2012 aims to reduce exclusion rate from 46.3% to 20% by 2020.
• The strategy targets four major barriers: income, access, literacy, affordability, and eligibility.
• Key tools include:
  • Simplified KYC requirements.
  • Agent banking development.
  • Financial literacy programs.
  • Consumer protection frameworks.
  • Mobile payment systems.
  • Credit enhancement schemes for MSMEs.
• Informal financial access (e.g., ROSCAs, money lenders) is more effective in smoothing consumption in North East.
• Regional focus is necessary to improve financial inclusion outcomes, especially in underdeveloped regions.

E. Quasi-Fiscal Activities

• Quasi-fiscal activities (QFAs) are central bank and public financial institution activities that affect the public sector balance without impacting the Federal Government (FGN) budget.
• Implicit export taxes and import subsidies are estimated at N71 billion and N197 billion in 2014, respectively.
• These amounts are equivalent to 3% of gross oil revenue and 13% of fuel subsidies estimated for the 2014 budget.
• Subsidized lending through the CBN and PFIs amounts to 17% of FGN capital expenditure.
• Implicit subsidies from the CBN are calculated as the difference between the maximum lending rate and subsidized rate, resulting in N140 billion in 2013.

Policy Implications

• Regional disparities must be addressed through fiscal and structural reforms.
• Financial inclusion should be expanded, with a regional focus and improved access to formal financial systems.
• Quasi-fiscal activities need to be monitored and managed to ensure they do not undermine fiscal sustainability.
• Economic transformation requires strategic investment, policy coherence, and improved data collection for better decision-making.

Key Data and Statistics

• Poverty rate: 33.1% in 2012/13.
• Oil revenue distribution: 13% to oil-producing states, 44% to FGN, 43% shared among states, local, and federal capital governments.
• Domestic savings: N15.5 trillion (14% of GDP).
• Loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio: 57% (low).
• Financial inclusion rate: 30% of adults have bank accounts.
• MSME credit access: Only 2% of adults had loans in the past year.
• Implicit subsidies: N197 billion (export subsidies), N71 billion (import subsidies), N140 billion (subsidized lending).
• Fuel subsidies: 13% of the 2014 budget.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for economic transformation in Nigeria. It emphasizes the need for targeted policies, improved financial inclusion, and effective management of quasi-fiscal activities to support long-term growth and development. Addressing regional disparities, financing gaps, and data limitations are crucial for sustainable development and policy implementation.