英文_高盛_德国商业银行（CBKG）_德国商业银行股份公司（CBKG）2025年第一季度业绩公布后更新估值_11页_1mb

Commerzbank AG (CBKG.DE) recently reported Q1 2025 results, which exceeded expectations due to stronger revenues and lower-than-expected credit costs, partially offset by higher operating expenses. This led to an upward revision of 2025 NII guidance from ~€7.7bn to ~€7.8bn, and EPS forecasts increased by 6% to €2.84 for 2025E, driven by factors such as declining deposit beta and improved performance at mBank. The bank also raised its CET1 capital guidance to ≥14.5% for 2025.

Outlook for 2025-2028 sees potential for exceeding NII targets through benign deposit trends, a greater replicating portfolio contribution, and corporate loan growth. However, risks include wage inflation, tech investments, excess provisions for CHF mortgages, and macroeconomic challenges in Europe. The Neutral rating comes with a price target of €27.30, based on updated valuation rolling forward the P/E methodology. Upside risks include higher rates and better cost savings, while downside risks include opex overruns and asset quality issues.