20180613-兴业金融证券-Banks__Slowing_Credit_Growth_Implies_Further_Easing_5页_177kb

报告摘要

Sector Rating: The financial services sector, specifically banks, is rated OVERWEIGHT.
Top Picks: Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Bank of China (BOC) are highlighted as top picks.
Earnings Trend: The last 12 months' earnings revision trend is positive.

TSF Growth: Total social financing (TSF) fell sharply by 51.2% MoM to CNY761bn, 41.5% below the consensus estimate.
New Loans: Monthly new loans remained stable at CNY1.15trn (down 2.5% MoM).
M2 and Deposits: YoY growth for M2 and deposits was 8.3% and 8.9%, respectively, indicating subdued growth.
Loan Allocation: There is a noticeable shift in loan allocation, with mortgages increasing to 34% of total new loans in May, up from 27% in January-April.
Risk Appetite: The decline in corporate bond issuance and off-balance sheet financing suggests a falling risk appetite for banks.
Credit Risks: Rising credit risks are a concern, as the shift in loan mix indicates a cautious stance by banks.

PBoC Actions: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has rolled over the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and extended its collateral range, aiming to maintain liquidity.
RRR Cut Expectation: A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is anticipated in the next six months, with a forecast of 50-100bps.
Trigger for RRR Cut: Potential triggers include a further slowdown in total financing and acceleration in bond defaults.

Deposit Deviation Relaxation: The CBIRC relaxed the deposit deviation standard to 4% from 3%, and removed the ban on "high-interest deposit taking".
Impact on Banks: This move aims to ease funding pressure for smaller banks but may result in higher funding expenses and squeezed NIM (net interest margin).

Rating Distribution:
- Buy: 6 stocks
- Neutral: 3 stocks
- Sell: 0 stocks
Stock Performance:
- ABC and BOC have the highest % Upside at 40.4% and 40.8%, respectively.
- Other stocks include China CITIC Bank, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, ICBC, and Bank of Communications with varying upside potential.
- Bank of Communications and China Everbright Bank have a negative or low upside and are rated Neutral.

Investment Disclaimer: This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Confidentiality: The contents of this report are strictly confidential and must not be reproduced or disseminated without express permission.
Forward-Looking Statements: The report contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Distribution Restrictions: The report is issued and distributed in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and Hong Kong by RHB Research Institute and its affiliates, with regional legal compliance noted.
Conflict of Interest: RHB and its affiliates may have interests or business relationships with the companies covered in the report, which could affect objectivity.

The report includes charts showing TSF breakdown and YoY growth of TSF and bank loans.
Ownership and Conflicts: RHB and its affiliates have no qualified shareholding in the subject companies, and analysts are prohibited from owning securities of companies they cover.
Investor Responsibility: Investors are advised to make their own independent decisions and seek professional advice.