20170825-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_39页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of company results and stock analysis for several Asian markets, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes detailed performance reviews, upgrades/downgrades, key financial metrics, and corporate events for various companies. The report also outlines key assumptions, valuation metrics, and analyst recommendations.

China

Company Results

Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK):
- 1H17: Core profit beat expectations, up 86% yoy to Rmb7.26b, representing 73% of 2017 forecasts.
- 2Q17: Core net profit rose 71% yoy to Rmb3.46b, but fell 9% qoq. Net profit grew 57% yoy to Rmb6.27b.
- Upgrades: Upgrade from HOLD to BUY, with a target price increased to HK$21.00 (upside of 30.8%).
- Key Drivers: Strong margins from Trumpchi, GQ Honda, and GAC Toyota, especially due to the high-performing GS8 model. EBIT margin improved by 2.1ppt to 13.1%.
- Future Outlook: Sales volume expected to grow to 900,000 units by 2019, with new models and capacity expansion. Net margin assumptions increased to 10-12% for 2017-2019.
- Provisions: One-time provisions for GAC Gonow in 2017 (Rmb1.2b), expected to be minimal in 2018-2019.

Hengan International (1044 HK)

1H17: Core earnings rose 14% yoy to Rmb1.8b, driven by efficiency gains from the sales team reform.
Upgrade: From HOLD to BUY, with a target price raised to HK$76.00 (upside of +15.1%).
Sales Performance: Group revenue remained flat, but net profit improved. EBIT margin increased by 3.3ppt to 27.4%.
Key Drivers: Sanitary napkin business grew 7% yoy, and e-commerce sales surged 160% yoy, contributing 8.8% to total sales.
Dividend: Interim dividend of 95 Rmb cents declared, translating to a 61.7% payout ratio.

Indonesia

Company Highlights

Kimia Farma (KAEF IJ):
- Business diversification and expansion are expected to support earnings growth.

Malaysia

Company Results

AMMB Holdings (AMM MK):
- 1QFY18: Net profit in line with expectations. Management refuted concerns over contingent liabilities, which may support share price recovery. Maintain HOLD.
Genting Berhad (GENT MK):
- 2Q17: Results within expectation. Declared 8.5 sen DPS. Maintain BUY.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK):
- 2Q17: Earnings disappointed again despite good qoq revenue growth. Downgraded to SELL, with an unchanged target price of RM5.15.
Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK):
- 4QFY17: Results in line. Strong NIM expansion and recovery at Bank of Chengdu. Pre-provision operating profit rose 9% yoy. Maintain BUY.

Singapore

Re-Initiated Coverage

GuocoLand (GUOL SP):
- Re-initiated coverage with a BUY rating. Target price S$2.80, with an upside of +17.1%.
Health Management International (HMI SP):
- FY17: Solid results. Expect momentum to continue in FY18. Maintain BUY.

Thailand

2Q17 Results Review

Earnings: Down 6% yoy, but revenue showed some improvement.
Market Outlook: Not yet clear. Earnings are expected to stabilize with continued growth in key segments.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	21783.4	-0.1	0.2	0.8	10.2
S&P 500	2439.0	-0.2	0.4	-1.5	8.9
FTSE 100	7407.1	0.3	0.3	-0.4	3.7
AS30	5801.7	0.2	-0.4	0.5	1.4
CSI 300	3734.6	-0.6	0.4	0.4	12.8
FSSTI	3272.2	0.4	0.1	-1.7	13.6
HSCEI	11051.0	0.9	2.2	2.5	17.6
HSI	27518.6	0.4	0.4	2.5	25.1
JCI	5894.1	-0.3	0.0	1.4	11.3
KLCI	1775.5	0.1	-0.0	0.7	8.1
KOSPI	2375.8	0.4	0.6	-2.6	17.2
Nikkei 225	19353.8	-0.4	-1.8	-3.0	1.3
SET	1576.0	0.2	0.4	-0.3	2.1
TWSE	10489.0	0.8	1.2	0.2	13.4
BDI	1222	-2.2	-2.0	25.1	27.2
CPO (RM/mt)	2694	-0.4	3.2	3.6	-15.8
Brent Crude	52	-1.0	2.0	7.1	-8.4

Top Picks

BUY

Alibaba (BABA US): Target price $205.00, upside +17.1%
Beijing Ent. Water (371 HK): Target price HK$7.60, upside +17.1%
Ace Hardware (ACES IJ): Target price IJ$1,300.00, upside +23.2%
Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ): Target price IJ$3,350.00, upside +48.2%
Ekovest (EKO MK): Target price MK$1.55, upside +34.8%
OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price SP$13.38, upside +21.3%
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price TB$600.00, upside +23.0%

SELL

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price HK$5.50, downside -45.8%
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK): Target price MK$1.38, downside -7.4%

Key Assumptions

Market	2016	2017F	2018F	2019F
US	1.6	2.5	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	1.7	1.8	1.6	1.6
Japan	1.0	0.9	1.2	1.2
Singapore	2.0	2.4	2.5	2.5
Malaysia	4.2	5.0	4.9	4.9
Thailand	3.2	3.3	3.3	3.3
Indonesia	5.0	5.2	5.5	5.5
Hong Kong	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0
China	6.7	6.6	6.3	6.3
Brent (Average)	45	55	58	58
CPO	2,653	2,600	2,400	2,400

Corporate Events

Analyst Presentation on Malaysia Technology Sector: 22–23 Aug, Taipei
Roadshow with Logan Property Holdings: 23–24 Aug, Taipei
Roadshow with China TCM Holdings: 23–24 Aug, Hong Kong; 28 Aug, Shanghai
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology: 24–25 Aug, Taipei
Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings: 25–25 Aug, Hong Kong; 28 Aug, Hong Kong
Roadshow with Dah Chong Hong: 28–29 Aug, Singapore
Roadshow with Sihuan Pharmaceutical: 1 Sep, Taipei
Roadshow with Anta Sports Products: 5 Sep, Shanghai
Lunchon with Ten Pao Group Holdings: 5 Sep, Hong Kong
Analyst Marketing on 2H17: 5–6 Sep, Singapore
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation: 5–12 Sep, US/Canada
Roadshow with Health Management International: 6 Sep, Kuala Lumpur
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology: 12 Sep, Hong Kong
Tea Session with Cityneon Holdings: 12 Sep, Singapore
Asian Gems Conference 2017: 10–11 Oct, Singapore
UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference: 13 Nov, Kuala Lumpur

Summary of Key Points

Guangzhou Automobile Group saw a strong performance in 1H17, with core profit growth of 86% yoy and an upgrade to BUY.
Hengan International also improved in 1H17, with core earnings up 14% yoy, and was upgraded to BUY.
Malaysia had mixed results, with Genting Malaysia downgraded to SELL, while Hong Leong Bank and Genting Berhad maintained BUY.
Singapore re-initiated coverage for GuocoLand and highlighted Health Management International as a top pick.
Thailand showed a 6% yoy earnings decline but potential for recovery.
Key Indices showed mixed performance across the region, with HSCEI and HSI leading the way.
Corporate Events indicate active engagement with investors in the region, with multiple roadshows and presentations scheduled from August to November 2017.

Valuation & Financial Metrics

Guangzhou Automobile Group

Target PE: Raised from 9x to 11x (historical mean).
EPS: Raised to 150.1 fen for 2017, with 207.9 fen expected in 2019.
P/B: Decreased from 2.5x to 1.6x.
Net Debt/Equity: Negative, indicating strong leverage position.
ROE: Improved to 23.0% in 2019.

Hengan International

Target Price: Raised to HK$76.00.
EPS: Expected to rise to 355.0 fen in 2019.
P/B: Decreased from 4.7x to 3.6x.
Dividend Yield: Increased to 4.1% in 2019.
Net Margin: Improved to 19.8% in 2019.

Conclusion

The report highlights strong performance in the automotive and consumer staples sectors, with GAC and Hengan showing notable earnings growth and efficiency improvements. Several companies were upgraded, while others faced downgrades due to weaker performance. Corporate events and analyst engagement are active across the region, indicating a focus on investor relations and market positioning. The overall outlook is cautiously optimistic, with emphasis on future growth through new models, market expansion, and operational efficiency.

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