20240617-一德期货-宏观策略周报_24页_2mb

报告总结

• 大类资产走势回顾：国内债券市场继续上涨，10Y国债收益率下降10%，股市如沪深300和上证50指数周跌幅扩大，商品指数下跌；海外市场美债收益率大幅下行5%，支持下CRB指数上涨14%，表现强于国内。

• 国内经济跟踪：房地产成交持续低迷，乘用车销售同比转跌；CPI readings show mild price increases due to pork, but core inflation slowing; PPI rebounds in supplies but weak demand; financial market stable with slight credit growth, though investment and consumption remain weak.

• 海外经济跟踪：美国CPI inflation slowing to 3% annual, consumer confidence drops; Eurozone industrial output declines, UK economic growth stalls; Fed points to only one potential rate cut this year.

• 资产配置建议：国内 recommend holding stocks if below 3050, favor government bonds and gold; cautious on commodities. Overall allocation: stocks 25-30%, bonds 15-15%, gold 10-10%, commodities 10-15%, cash 40-30% for balanced strategy.

• 本周重要数据及事件：涵盖6月17-21日的关键经济事件，如CPI、工业产出数据，以及央行政策更新等。