2024-10-27-IMF-通货膨胀与劳动力市场_自下而上的视角（英）_37页_1mb

Inflation and Labor Markets: A Bottom-Up View

Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Do Lee, Prachi Mishra, IMF Working Paper WP/24/220

Summary

This paper examines the relationship between wage growth in the service sector and services inflation in the United States at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. Using proprietary microdata from employment records and price indices, the authors estimate the wage-price pass-through using a local projection instrumental variable (LP-IV) model with a Bartik shock instrumented by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio.

Key Context:

• US inflation surged in 2021-22 due to mixed goods and services drivers, with services inflation remaining elevated despite a decline in headline inflation by August 2024.
• Labor market tightness, measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, is identified as a significant factor in inflation persistence.

Methodology and Findings:

• A one-log-point increase in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio corresponds to a peak of 27% increase in year-on-year service wage growth and up to an 8.8 percentage point increase in services inflation over 10 months.
• Labor market tightness accounts for an average of 68.7% of services inflation (excluding housing) between Q3 2022 and Q1 2023.
• Non-linear effects show higher wage-price pass-through under tighter labor markets.
• Results are robust across specifications and comparisons with aggregate data, though slightly higher for services inflation.

Conclusion:
Persistently tight labor markets exert ongoing pressure on inflation through wage growth, emphasizing the role of localized labor dynamics in sustaining inflation, with potential implications for policy.