世界银行-出口大宗商品的新兴和发展中经济体的财政政策顺周期性和波动性：增长的决定因素和影响（英）-2025.1

Fiscal Policy Procyclicality and Volatility in Commodity-Exporting Economies: Determinants and Implications

Key Findings and Implications

Fiscal policy in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) is more procyclical and volatile compared to other EMDEs and advanced economies. This procyclicality—where fiscal policy expands during economic booms and contracts during downturns—amplifies the impact of commodity price shocks, leading to reduced economic growth. Fiscal volatility, driven by factors such as capital flow restrictions, fixed exchange rate regimes, and weak institutions, further exacerbates macroeconomic instability.

Determinants of Fiscal Procyclicality and Volatility

• Structural and Institutional Factors: Capital account restrictions limit access to international financial markets, making fiscal policy more procyclical. Fixed exchange rate regimes reduce flexibility, contributing to procyclicality. Weak institutions, high political risk, and low-quality bureaucracy exacerbate these issues.
• Commodity Dependence: Countries with larger commodity sectors exhibit higher fiscal policy volatility due to revenue fluctuations from commodity prices.
• Policy Frameworks: The presence of fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) can help mitigate procyclicality and volatility when supported by strong institutions.

Impact on Economic Growth

• Procyclical and volatile fiscal policies amplify business cycles, leading to inefficiencies in government spending and potential debt distress.
• Empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy response to commodity price shocks can increase GDP volatility, with detrimental effects on long-term growth. For instance, commodity price increases in EMDEs are associated with procyclical fiscal expansions, boosting GDP more than in advanced economies.

Recommendations for Improvement

• Structural Reforms: Adopt flexible exchange rate regimes, ease capital flow restrictions, and strengthen institutional quality to reduce procyclicality and volatility.
• Fiscal Institutions: Implement fiscal rules (e.g., deficit or debt ceilings) and leverage SWFs to smooth revenue fluctuations and enhance fiscal discipline.
• Policy Integration: Combine fiscal tools with countercyclical policies and transparent budget frameworks to support sustainable growth.

Country case studies demonstrate that countries like Chile and Norway succeed through strong institutions and well-designed SWFs, while others, such as Botswana, highlight the importance of robust governance to ensure the effectiveness of fiscal tools. Weak institutions can undermine even well-intentioned policies, limiting their impact.

Conclusion

Addressing fiscal procyclicality and volatility in commodity-exporting economies requires a combination of structural reforms, institutional strengthening, and effective fiscal frameworks. By reducing these tendencies, countries can better manage commodity price shocks, promote stable growth, and avoid debt risks.