2016年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Austrias_thrilling_elections_will_have_far_2页_275kb

Summary of Austria's Presidential Election and Its Implications for the EU

Core Content

The 2016 Austrian presidential election was a closely contested race between Alexander Van Der Bellen, supported by the Green Party, and Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO). Van Der Bellen narrowly won with 50.3% of the votes, defeating Hofer's 49.7%, primarily due to the inclusion of postal votes counted the day after the polls closed.

Main Points

• Narrow Victory: Van Der Bellen's win was by a very small margin, highlighting the deep political divisions within Austria.
• Far-Right Momentum: The election demonstrated stronger support for the far-right than previously assumed in Brussels and other EU countries. Hofer's strong showing, particularly in rural areas, indicates a significant portion of the population is disillusioned with the current political system.
• Public Discontent: Over 50% of Austrians express strong disaffection with the political system, which could influence future elections if mainstream parties fail to address these concerns.
• Anti-TTIP Sentiment: Austria has the strongest opposition to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) among all EU member states. The FPO's opposition to TTIP poses a challenge for the government to secure its approval without further alienating the far-right.
• Green Party's Influence: The newly elected Green President is skeptical of TTIP, and his victory has bolstered the anti-TTIP movement. The Green Party's support for him may influence future policy decisions and political alliances.

Key Implications

• FPO's Political Future: The FPO is currently leading in opinion polls for the next legislative elections, suggesting a potential increase in its parliamentary influence. A possible coalition with the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) could lead to a shift in the political landscape.
• Presidential Stance: Van Der Bellen has vowed not to support an FPO-led government, which may create political tensions and a crisis if the FPO gains significant parliamentary representation.
• EU Integration Concerns: The close presidential election results may inspire other far-right and Eurosceptic parties in the EU, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the French National Front, to gain more traction in upcoming elections.
• 2017 as a Critical Year: The elections in France and Germany in 2017 are expected to be pivotal for the EU, as these countries are seen as key drivers of European integration.

Conclusion

The Austrian presidential election, while resulting in a narrow victory for the Greens, has significant implications for the broader European political context. It underscores the growing influence of far-right and Eurosceptic movements within the EU, raises concerns about the future of EU integration, and highlights the need for mainstream parties to address public discontent to prevent further political shifts. The election also serves as a catalyst for increased pressure on the EU to respond to migration and trade issues, with potential repercussions across the continent.