_汽车之家研究院_置换用户趋势洞察（2025年）_28页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Automotive Replacement Analysis

1. Introduction

The assessment examines the impact of "two new" policies on China's used car replacement market, a key driver during 2024-2025. These policies, including subsidy increases, boosted replacement rates beyond 50%, primarily by stimulating lower-budget and older customer segments (e.g., >40 years old). However, concerns persist about policy sustainability and slower growth in electric vehicle (EV) conversions balancing out reduced demand. The market has seen significant shifts, including demographic expansion and challenges in customer retention.

Key trends:

Policy Impact: The "two new" initiatives leverage subsidies and conditions (e.g., scrapping older vehicles for discounts), with replacement subsidies being a major factor in driving sales growth. Policy discontinuation in 2025 could negatively impact future sales. These policies disproportionately affect lower-premium users and urban-to-rural demographics.
Market Dynamics: Replacement markets dominated strategic positioning sales, with over half consumers opting for upgrades. However, energy transition from fuel to EV slowed in 2025H1, and dealership and manufacturer groups showed operational advantages over single brands. The EV market is concentrated among Chinese independent brands, which captured ~40% of the niche, while legacy brands and luxury segments face challenges.
Customer Behavior: Insights reveal high churn loyalty rates (~10% for single brands, improved with automotive groups), lower spending in budget segments (<10k CNY), and demographic shifts toward older and rural customers. Price appreciation, with smaller gaps in premium cars, pushed upgrades, but high-end segments saw less momentum.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Automakers should focus on group-level customer retention (internal flows for groups) and target external sources, such as cross-brand conversions.
- Leverage EV products (e.g., new models powering growth) and optimize for segments like pricing-driven consumers.
- Post-2025 policy uncertainty requires surging early sales conversions and presence in evolving low-cost or high-potential segments like used car-related intermedistations.