2022-01-03-瑞士信贷集团-到2023年_全球个人电脑出货量将小幅下降_24页_1mb

Asia PC/Hardware Sector Summary

Core Content

This report provides a forecast for the global PC hardware sector, focusing on shipment trends, revenue growth, and the performance of different market segments in the period 2022-23E. It highlights the impact of the pandemic on PC demand, the ongoing digital transformation, and the shift in consumer behavior.

Key Trends and Forecasts

Global PC Shipments

• 2022-23E: Global PC shipments are expected to decline by 3-4% YoY, following a significant +14-15% YoY increase in 2020/21E due to the pandemic.
• 2022E: Shipment volume is forecasted at 332.2 mn units (down 3% YoY), slightly revised from the previous forecast of -4% YoY.
• 2023E: Shipment volume is projected to be 319.9 mn units (down 4% YoY), reflecting a return to more normal levels after the pandemic-driven surge.
• Pre-pandemic comparison: Despite the decline, PC shipments are expected to remain above 2019 levels.

Notebook vs. Desktop

• Notebooks (NB): Expected to outperform desktops (DT), with shipments of 251.5 mn and 243.2 mn in 2022/23E, respectively.
• 2022E: NB shipments are forecasted to decline by ~3% YoY, while DT shipments are expected to fall by ~4-5% YoY.
• 4Q21: Notebook shipments are anticipated to rise by +9.5% QoQ to 69.8 mn units, with desktop units growing +5% QoY due to commercial refresh.

Consumer and Education Demand

• Consumer PC: Expected to decline by ~2-3% YoY in 2022-23E, due to fading stay-at-home demand and supply prioritization towards commercial and premium segments.
• Education: Demand is expected to normalize, with Chromebook shipments forecasted to decline by 13% YoY in 2022E to ~35 mn units, and 5% YoY in 2023E to ~33 mn units, despite a 23% YoY increase in 2021E.

Chromebook Outlook

• Chromebook shipments: Projected to normalize in 2022-23E, with a ~35 mn forecast for 2022E and ~33 mn for 2023E.
• Market share: Chromebooks account for ~13.8-13.9% of total PC shipments in 2022E, down from 16.0% in 2021E.
• Key beneficiaries: Quanta, Acer, and Elan are expected to benefit from the continued momentum in Chromebook demand.

Revenue and ASP Trends

PC Revenue

• 2022E: Global PC revenue is forecasted to grow ~0.1% YoY, with a flattish change in industry revenue due to a combination of higher ASP and volume trends.
• 2023E: PC revenue is expected to contract by ~6% YoY, as component supply constraints ease and ASPs decline.
• Blended ASP: Expected to grow ~3% YoY in 2022E due to a favorable product mix and component tightness, but to fall ~2% YoY in 2023E.

Segment Revenue

• Notebooks: Revenue is expected to grow ~0.4% YoY in 2022E, with a slight decline in 2023E.
• Desktops: Revenue is forecasted to decline ~1.2% YoY in 2022E and ~8% YoY in 2023E.
• Chromebooks: Revenue is expected to see a ~6.9% YoY decline in 2022E and ~4.4% YoY decline in 2023E, due to lower ASP and market normalization.

Stock and Market Outlook

• Stock Calls: The report remains NEUTRAL on Asian PC brands, with a relatively preference for Lenovo over Acer and Asus due to its higher commercial exposure, global footprint, service business model, and server business turnaround.
• Quanta: Highlighted as a top pick due to expected ~9% YoY growth in NB revenue, driven by better mix, miniLED ramp, and content increase.
• Underperform: Compal is noted as underperforming due to its high reliance on PC shipments.

Sensitivity Analysis

• Replacement Cycle: A 5.5-year cycle and -3.6% churn rate are used as base assumptions.
• Volume sensitivity:
  • For 2022E: A 0.5-year change in replacement cycle leads to a 6-8% deviation, while a 0.5pp change in churn rate leads to a 2-2.5% deviation.
  • For 2023E: A 0.5-year change in replacement cycle leads to a 6-9% deviation, and a 0.5pp change in churn rate leads to a 2-2.5% deviation.

Conclusion

The global PC market is expected to see a modest decline in shipments through 2023E, with notebooks continuing to outperform desktops. While consumer demand faces headwinds due to fading pandemic-driven trends, commercial demand, especially from enterprise and SMBs, is expected to offset this. Chromebook shipments are also projected to normalize, but still remain above pre-pandemic levels. Revenue growth is anticipated in 2021E due to ASP increases, but is expected to normalize or contract in 2022-23E as component supply tightness eases. The report emphasizes the importance of the replacement cycle and churn rate in forecasting PC shipment trends and highlights key players in the sector.