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📊 IT Hardware Industry Overview - July 2021

1. Market Trends

• PC Market: Shipments remained strong (13% YoY growth), but demand is expected to normalize by FY22 due to easing supply chain constraints. Chromebooks showed resilience, while traditional PCs faced logistc challenges. Margins are under pressure due to rising input costs and fading demand momentum.

• Servers Market: Unit growth is rebounding due to enterprise demand recovery, with public cloud adoption driving a structural shift toward cloud-hosted servers. Unit growth is projected at +6%-+8% in CY21/CY22, with ASP growth driven by rising DRAM costs.

• Storage Market: All-flash storage is leading demand recovery, with increasing penetration rates as costs decline. Revenue growth is modest (~2% YoY), but the mid-range segment offers significant opportunities.

2. Company Highlights

• Pure Storage:

  • All-flash adoption and subscription services to drive revenue growth.
  • Margins under scrutiny due to rising component costs.
  • Target price: $21, Neutral rating.

• NetApp:

  • Strong enterprise and commercial demand growth, supported by hybrid cloud strategies.
  • Public cloud services (PCS) driving above-trend revenue, with margin upside from higher services mix.

• HP Inc.:

  • PC growth is moderating by FY22, but Print segment shows resilience in Commercial HW.
  • Margins at risk from logistic costs and fading demand momentum.

• Dell:

  • Commercial systems (CSG) growth is robust, but ISG (Systems) recovery is gradual.
  • Margins facing pressure from component and logistics inflation.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE):

  • Enterprise demand improving, but over reliance on on-prem servers limits growth potential.
  • Data Fabric strategy provides differentiation in hybrid cloud environment.

3. Key Risks

• Supply Chain: Constraints persist for PCs and servers, potentially pushing delivery delays into FY22.
• Cost Inflation: Rising input costs (DRAM, NAND, logistics) threaten profitability.
• Demand Shifts: COVID-driven demand surge in PCs/Consumer is fading, while enterprise spending remains stable but not record highs.
• Cloud Migration: Accelerated cloud adoption limits on-prem server/Storage growth by at least CY22.