HINES-未来的零售业——重新构想和重新定位（英文）-2020.9-26页

Summary of "Retail of the Future: Reimagined and Repurposed"

Core Content

The document explores the transformation of the retail industry in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the next 24 months and how the sector is adapting to new consumer behaviors, economic conditions, and technological shifts. It emphasizes the shift from traditional retail models to mixed-use, omnichannel, and experiential formats, highlighting the evolving role of physical stores and the challenges faced by landlords and retailers.

Main Views

1. Retail Landscape Transformation

• The pandemic has accelerated structural changes in the retail sector, including store closures, consolidation, and the rise of omnichannel retail.
• The U.S. middle class has shrunk over the past decade, and long-term wage growth has been modest, exacerbating the financial strain on retailers.
• Store closures in 2019 reached 10,300, and this number is expected to increase in 2020 due to the economic impact of the pandemic.

2. Shift to Mixed-Use and Omnichannel Retail

• Mixed-use developments are becoming more important than standalone retail spaces.
• Retailers are integrating online and offline channels, using physical stores for fulfillment, pick-up, and experiential engagement.
• The traditional retail model is evolving, with physical stores no longer just selling products but also enhancing brand presence through customer experience, dining, and social interaction.

3. Role of Physical Stores

• Physical stores are not obsolete, but their function has changed.
• Consumers are returning to stores for unique in-store experiences, especially those that offer social, wellness, and leisure activities.
• Outdoor and open-air centers are gaining popularity due to the preference for safe, natural environments post-pandemic.

4. Regional and Global Differences

• The impact of the pandemic varies across regions:
  • U.S.: Department stores and mid-market apparel brands are struggling, while Class A open-air centers are performing better.
  • Europe: High street retailers are facing challenges due to limited space for omnichannel fulfillment, but some are adapting by repurposing stores and focusing on experiential retail.
  • Asia: Urban retail centers are relatively new, and Class A stock is less obsolete. Online-offline integration is more advanced in China.
  • Russia: Department stores are being replaced with interactive, experiential formats, and outdoor centers are seeing strong footfall.
  • Japan: E-commerce is growing rapidly, with a significant increase in logistics leasing.
  • Australia: E-commerce is growing, but delivery times remain a challenge, making in-store pickup more attractive.

5. Future of Shopping Centers

• Mixed-use conversions will be key to revitalizing shopping centers.
• Outdoor retail spaces are becoming more important, especially in areas with good climate conditions.
• The future of shopping centers will focus on a broader mix of goods and experiences, as well as integrated living and workspaces.

6. Impact on Landlords

• Landlords will need to adapt to new lease structures and tenant demands.
• Traditional lease models based on sales percentages may become less relevant as omnichannel revenue streams emerge.
• Future leases may include gross base rents, and landlords will need to work closely with retailers to align on performance metrics and shared risk models.
• Capital investments in existing malls may be challenging, and landlords must consider the long-term viability of their properties.

Key Information

• Store Consolidation: Increased due to the recession and weakened consumer spending.
• Omnichannel Retail: Becoming the new standard, with physical stores serving as fulfillment and experiential hubs.
• Consumer Behavior: Shift towards convenience, safety, and experiential shopping.
• Lease Models: Traditional percentage-based leases are becoming less viable, with a move towards gross base rent and shared risk models.
• Outdoor Retail: Gaining traction due to the preference for natural, open environments.
• Mixed-Use Development: Will dominate future retail planning, especially in suburban and urban areas.
• Regional Variations:
  • U.S.: Focus on suburban centers and the "Suburban/Urban Strategy."
  • Europe: Heritage high streets face challenges in adapting to digital retail.
  • Asia: Class A retail stock is less obsolete, and omnichannel integration is more advanced.
  • Russia: Department stores are being replaced with interactive retail formats.
  • Japan: E-commerce is growing rapidly, impacting logistics and retail formats.
  • Australia: E-commerce is still in early stages, with in-store pickup being more viable.

Conclusion

The retail industry is undergoing a significant transformation post-pandemic, driven by digital disruption, changing consumer expectations, and economic challenges. The future belongs to mixed-use, omnichannel, and experiential retail environments. Landlords must adapt their strategies, including lease structures and capital investments, to align with these changes. The key to success will be collaboration between landlords and retailers, as well as a focus on creating safe, convenient, and engaging spaces for consumers.