荷兰国际关系研究所-应对混合威胁：改善欧盟-北约合作的步骤（英）-2021.10-49页_1mb

Summary of the Document: Countering Hybrid Threats

Core Content

This report, authored by Dick Zandee, Sico van der Meer, and Adája Stoetman from the Clingendael Institute, examines the progress and potential for improving EU-NATO cooperation in countering hybrid threats. It outlines the evolving nature of hybrid threats and the framework of EU-NATO collaboration since 2016.

Main Points

• Hybrid Threats: The term refers to a combination of military and non-military actions, including cyberattacks, disinformation, and election interference. While there is no universally accepted definition, the EU and NATO have developed a shared understanding of the concept.

• EU-NATO Cooperation Framework: The 2016 EU-NATO Joint Declaration identified seven areas of cooperation, with countering hybrid threats and cyber security and defence being key. Since then, 74 concrete proposals have been developed, and six progress reports have been issued to evaluate their implementation.

• Situational Awareness: This is a foundational element of countering hybrid threats. The EU and NATO have taken steps to improve information sharing between their hybrid threat analysis units, including the EU Hybrid Fusion Cell and the NATO Hybrid Analysis Branch. While progress has been made in establishing communication channels and shared assessments, the lack of a joint threat assessment remains a challenge due to classification and intelligence-sharing barriers.

• Strategic Communication: Both the EU and NATO have focused on countering disinformation through coordinated efforts. Activities include joint trend analysis, information exchanges, and training programs. The response to the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated increased cooperation in this area, with both organizations working together to combat health-related disinformation.

• Crisis Response and Resilience: These areas are also part of the cooperation framework. However, the report notes that while some progress has been made, there is still room for improvement in terms of operational coordination and building resilience against hybrid threats.

• Cyber Security and Defence: Cyber threats are considered a critical component of hybrid threats. While cyber security is treated as a separate category from hybrid threats, it is closely related and included in the analysis. The report highlights the importance of joint efforts in protecting critical infrastructure and enhancing cyber capabilities.

Key Information

• The EU and NATO have made some progress in situational awareness and strategic communication, but the lack of a unified threat assessment and limited information sharing remain significant obstacles.

• The Hybrid Centre of Excellence (Hybrid CoE) in Helsinki has played a crucial role in fostering collaboration between the EU and NATO, especially in the areas of strategic communication and situational awareness.

• The NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (StratCom CoE) and the EEAS Strategic Communication Division have engaged in joint training and information exchanges, which have improved cooperation but not yet led to fully integrated strategies.

• The report emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive and integrated approach to countering hybrid threats, including better coordination, enhanced information sharing, and more concrete actions to address the challenges posed by these threats.

Obstacles and Limitations

• Information Sharing: Classified information and intelligence hinder the development of a joint EU-NATO threat assessment.

• Political Constraints: The EU and NATO operate under different political and institutional frameworks, which can limit the depth and effectiveness of their cooperation.

• Limited Progress: While some initiatives have been implemented, the majority of the 74 proposals are long-term and require sustained effort, with limited visible results so far.

Future Potential

• The report suggests that there is potential for further EU-NATO cooperation, especially in the areas of strategic communication, situational awareness, and cyber security.

• It also highlights the opportunity for international cooperation outside the EU-NATO framework, particularly with non-state actors and other international organizations.

• The Netherlands is identified as having a role in promoting and supporting EU-NATO cooperation, especially in the development of joint strategies and capabilities.

Recommendations

• Strengthen Information Sharing: Develop mechanisms to facilitate the exchange of classified and unclassified information to enable a more comprehensive threat assessment.

• Enhance Strategic Communication: Expand joint efforts to counter disinformation and promote a unified narrative, especially in the context of global crises.

• Improve Coordination and Integration: Focus on operational coordination and the development of interoperable capabilities to better respond to hybrid threats.

• Leverage the Hybrid CoE: Utilize the Hybrid CoE as a platform for further collaboration and training in hybrid threat response.

• Explore Alternative Formats: Consider new cooperation models beyond the EU-NATO framework to address hybrid threats more effectively.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the EU and NATO have made some progress in countering hybrid threats, much remains to be done. A more integrated and sustained approach is necessary to address the complex and evolving nature of these threats, with the Hybrid CoE serving as a vital platform for collaboration. The Netherlands is positioned to play a key role in advancing this cooperation.