荷兰海牙战略研究中心-针对混合威胁的跨域策略框架（英文）-2021.1-54页_1mb

HCSS Security: A Framework for Cross-Domain Strategies Against Hybrid Threats

Core Content

This document outlines a strategic framework designed to counter hybrid threats by employing cross-domain strategies. The framework is developed to help the Netherlands and its alliance partners in formulating an effective strategic posture against hybrid conflict. It emphasizes the need for a structured and dynamic approach to security policy that integrates multiple domains and strategies to achieve a range of objectives.

Main Viewpoints

The report presents a dual-axis framework for analyzing and applying strategies against hybrid threats:

• Vertical (De-)Escalation Axis: Focuses on the intensity of the response, ranging from least to most escalatory, with five core strategies: Cooperation, Persuasion, Protection, Coercion, and Control.
• Horizontal (De-)Escalation Axis: Refers to the expansion of efforts across different domains, based on the DIMEL categorization (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, and Legal).

The framework is built on the understanding that hybrid threats are complex, involving both military and non-military actions, and that traditional deterrence is insufficient to address them. It advocates for a more nuanced approach that includes influence, persuasion, and resilience alongside defensive and coercive measures.

Key Information

Vertical Strategies

Horizontal Domains (DIMEL)

• Diplomatic: Involves international relations and cooperation.
• Information: Includes the use of media and communication to influence perception.
• Military: Direct use of force and combat operations.
• Economic: Sanctions, trade restrictions, and financial measures.
• Legal: Compliance with and enforcement of international and domestic laws.

Strategic Considerations

The report introduces five key assessments for selecting and executing cross-domain strategies:

1. Cost-Benefit Assessment: Evaluates the benefits and costs of strategies, considering their potential interaction across domains.
2. Cross-Domain Orchestration Assessment: Analyzes the coordination and implementation of strategies across different domains and actors.
3. Proportionality Assessment: Determines if the strategy is appropriate in relation to the threat, both in terms of the instruments used and the effects produced.
4. Signaling Assessment: Examines how strategies are perceived by domestic and international audiences and their psychological impact.
5. Legal and Normative Frameworks Assessment: Assesses the legality and normative implications of the strategy, both domestically and internationally.

These assessments are essential for ensuring that cross-domain strategies are effective, proportionate, and legally sound.

Strategic Implications

• Cooperation is inherently de-escalatory and can enhance other strategies such as protection and persuasion.
• Persuasion and Coercion can be combined, but Persuasion is less effective when paired with Control due to the loss of credibility.
• Protection can both mitigate threats and deter them by increasing the cost for adversaries.
• Control can provoke further hostile actions, so it must be used judiciously.
• Hybrid threats often operate in the grey zone between peace and war, using both conventional and non-attributable actions to achieve their goals.

Conclusion

The framework provides a comprehensive menu of strategies that can be used in a cross-domain context to counter hybrid threats. It emphasizes the need for adaptability, coordination, and a deep understanding of both the adversary and the international environment. The strategic posture should be dynamic, incorporating the latest developments in capabilities, legal frameworks, and perceptions. The framework is intended to be tested and refined through a simulation-based game, offering practical insights into the application of cross-domain strategies in hybrid conflict scenarios.

References

• The framework draws on traditional deterrence literature, redefining deterrence as a process of influencing the enemy's intentions, regardless of the nature of the action.
• It extends the work of King Mallory on cross-domain deterrence from 2018.
• The report is a background document for a hybrid conflict game organized by TNO and HCSS in 2020.