2025-05-29-Jefferies-每日加拿大金融资讯（2025年5月29日）_13页_320kb

Overview: This report provides an analysis of Canadian financials, including key bank earnings, market trends, and macroeconomic impacts. Focused on entities like EQB, BMO, and NA, with discussions on credit risks, trading performance, and the effects of U.S. trade tariffs.

Bank Earnings Highlights:

• EQB (EQB Inc.): Reported adjusted EPS below consensus due to higher credit provisions and subpar non-interest revenues. The overview underlines concerns in the commercial portfolio and pressure on the efficiency ratio.
• BMO: Benefitted from lower-than-expected provisions and improvements in impaired loans, leading to a strong earnings beat. Despite market skepticism on full credit marks, core earnings improvement supports a positive outlook.
• NA (National Bank): Demonstrated strong trading results amid peer underperformance, largely driven by contributions from the CWB acquisition. While run-rate earnings expectations are tempered, the acquisition's uplift is viewed positively for valuation.

Macroeconomic Updates:

• U.S. court rulings curtail Trump administration's tariff powers under IEEPA but don't affect ongoing steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs. This is seen as limiting future trade war escalations for Canada.
• Economic indicators show signs of recessionary pressures, including rising unemployment, grocery price hikes, and slower housing activity. Trade shifts are noted, such as increased Chinese imports of Canadian crude, and reduced travel between Canada and the U.S.
• Domestic debt growth is driven by Gen Z consumers and newcomers, with delinquencies climbing. This heightens risks for lenders and may indicate underperformance in risk strategies.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Buy ratings for EQB Inc., Manulife Financial Corp., and Power Corp. of Canada. Holds for large caps like BMO and TD, with suggestions to monitor key players given uncertainties.
• Emphasis on credit trends and trade mitigation factors, aligning with cautious outlooks.

Upcoming Events:

• Bank earnings season continues with LB, EQB, and RY reports. Economic data includes GDP and weekly earnings releases.
• Analyst reviews and valuation comps underscore risks tied to tariffs and credit deterioration, affecting sector valuations.